节前EC2604合约预计走势震荡，聚焦3月份船司挺价成色

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The EC2604 contract is expected to fluctuate before the holiday, and the focus is on the effectiveness of shipping companies' price - holding in March. The freight rate drive before the holiday is weak, and the 04 contract is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the implementation of shipping companies' price - holding after the holiday in March. For more distant contracts, the game over the resumption time is intense, and the volatility is expected to remain at a high level. [1][5][6] 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Futures Price - As of February 4, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures was 58,854.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 34,792.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1737.80, 1237.90, 1533.70, 1597.90, 1128.60, and 1439.00 respectively. [7] II. Spot Price - On February 1, 2026, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1418 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 1867 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 2605 US dollars/FEU. On February 2, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1792.14 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1101.40 points. [7] III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - Static Supply: As of January 31, 2026, 6 container ships with a total capacity of 46,950 TEU were delivered in 2026. For 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, 2 ships with a total of 28,000 TEU were delivered; for ships over 17,000 TEU, 1 ship with a capacity of 17,148 TEU was delivered. In terms of delivery expectations, from 2026 to 2029, different numbers of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and over 17,000 TEU ships are expected to be delivered. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, and the annual delivery volume of over 17,000 TEU ships in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40. Only 4 ships over 17,000 TEU were delivered in the first half of 2026. [2][3] - Dynamic Supply: The average weekly capacity in February was 263,100 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 6/7/8/9 were 300,400/312,700/271,300/168,200 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in March was 313,400 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 10/11/12/13/14 were 245,200/321,000/365,000/317,000/319,000 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in April was 279,000 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 15/16/17/18 were 291,300/317,700/266,500/241,200 TEU respectively. There were 12 blank sailings in February and 6 blank sailings and 2 TBNs in March. [3] IV. Supply Chain - Since mid - February 2026, Maersk's ME11 route will implement structural adjustments, passing through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. If possible, Maersk will also adjust the AE12 and AE15 services in subsequent stages to pass through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. The resumption of the Suez Canal is expected to be a gradual process, and COSCO management points out that there is still no clear schedule for the full resumption of the Red Sea. [2][6] V. Demand and European Economy - In December and January, the cargo volume was at a relatively high level in the year. The cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate for products such as photovoltaic by the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation in 2026 may disrupt the shipping rhythm of related industries and further affect the pricing strategies of shipping companies. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the freight volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can increase significantly and whether the actual freight rate will be firmer than in normal years. [5]