美伊地缘担忧仍存，ADP就业数据不及预期

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [9] 2. Core Viewpoints - The market's risk sentiment has increased, and the demand for gold investment may slightly recover. The gold price is expected to be in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern in the near term. The Au2604 contract may oscillate between 1,080 yuan/gram and 1,180 yuan/gram. Silver prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern as well, with the Ag2604 contract oscillating between 21,000 yuan/kilogram and 24,000 yuan/kilogram [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical concerns persist as the US-Iran negotiation location change led to a deadlock, causing concerns in the Middle East that Trump may resort to military action. The US ADP employment data in January was far below expectations, with only 22,000 new jobs added, compared to the expected 48,000. The previous value was revised down from 41,000 to 37,000. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the release schedules for January's non-farm payroll report, job vacancy data, and CPI [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On February 4, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1,100.02 yuan/gram and closed at 1,141.70 yuan/gram, a 4.38% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 1,113.78 yuan/gram, a 2.45% drop from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 22,000.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 23,511.00 yuan/kilogram, a 9.63% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 943,213 lots, and the open interest was 237,208 lots. The night session closed at 22,955 yuan/kilogram, a 2.36% drop from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On February 4, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.274%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.727%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3] SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Volume Changes - On February 4, 2026, in the Au2604 contract, the long positions changed by 1,858 lots, and the short positions changed by 704 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract was 607,573 lots, a -39.41% change from the previous trading day. In the Ag2604 contract, the long positions changed by 6,992 lots, and the short positions changed by 6,131 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract was 1,904,707 lots, a 17.58% change from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,083.38 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 16,438 tons, a decrease of 109 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On February 4, 2026, the domestic gold premium was -14.35 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was 47.66 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the SHFE was approximately 48.56, a -4.79% change from the previous trading day. The foreign market gold-silver ratio was 56.28, a -1.53% change from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On February 4, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 69,688 kilograms, a 29.30% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 523,996 kilograms, a -23.65% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [7]