伊朗局势仍不明朗，炼厂端需求增量可期

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] - Cross - period: Go long on the spread of FU2603/2605 at low prices (positive spread) [3] - Spot - futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The energy sector's recent fluctuations are significantly affected by the Iran situation. The news of Iran - US negotiations at the beginning of the week led to a sharp decline in oil prices, and the shooting down of an Iranian drone by the US military has reignited market concerns, causing the geopolitical premium of crude oil to rebound. The India - US agreement will reduce the consumption capacity of Russian oil by 1 million barrels per day and increase the purchase of compliant oil, which will tighten the non - sanctioned oil market and support international oil prices. The rebound in crude oil prices has driven up the FU and LU futures prices. However, the Iran situation remains uncertain, and the upcoming negotiation on February 6 may cause market fluctuations [1]. - From the perspective of the fundamentals of the products themselves, the fundamentals of high - sulfur fuel oil are currently strong, with a marginal tightening of the spot market in the Asia - Pacific region and a relatively firm market structure. High - sulfur fuel oil has a large risk exposure to the Iran situation. There is an expected increase in demand for high - sulfur fuel oil as domestic asphalt refineries may use Iranian crude oil and fuel oil as alternative raw materials. The fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil have no obvious contradictions, and it mainly follows the fluctuations of the crude oil market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 3.98% at 2,797 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 3.39% at 3,268 yuan/ton [1]. - The energy sector's fluctuations are affected by the Iran situation. The news of negotiations led to a decline in oil prices, and the shooting down of the drone reignited concerns, causing the geopolitical premium to rebound. The India - US agreement will reduce Russian oil consumption and support international oil prices. The Iran - US negotiation on February 6 may cause market fluctuations [1]. Product Fundamentals - High - sulfur fuel oil has strong fundamentals, with a marginal tightening of the Asia - Pacific spot market. It has a large risk exposure to the Iran situation, and there is an expected increase in demand as it may be used as an alternative raw material by domestic asphalt refineries [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil has no obvious fundamental contradictions and mainly follows the crude oil market [2]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, pay attention to the development of the Iran situation [3]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, pay attention to the development of the Iran situation [3]. - Cross - variety: None [3]. - Cross - period: Go long on the spread of FU2603/2605 at low prices (positive spread) [3]. - Spot - futures: None [3]. - Options: None [3].