库存延续去库

Report Investment Rating - The report does not mention the investment rating for the industry [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - Partial manufacturers' price cuts led to better order collection, with agricultural demand following up and industrial rigid demand declining. It is expected that prices will remain firm before the Spring Festival. In January, some gas - based and technological transformation enterprises resumed production, increasing the supply. On the demand side, agricultural demand for winter and spring fertilizers continued, and manufacturers started pre - holiday order collection. The off - season storage procurement is in the later stage, and 10% of off - season storage supplies are expected to be released in February. The compound fertilizer production was slightly affected by environmental protection, but overall it was at a moderately high level. The demand from downstream fertilizer users was approaching, and the shipment improved, with an expected decline in production before the Spring Festival. The melamine plant resumed production, increasing the rigid demand for procurement. Overall, the inventory in urea plants decreased slightly, while the port inventory increased slightly. Influenced by the situation in Iran, international urea prices rose. There is no new information on the domestic export quota, and future attention should be paid to export dynamics, off - season storage release rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report shows the prices of Shandong and Henan urea small particles, Henan basis, urea main - contract closing price, and price spreads such as 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 [1][6][7] 2. Urea Output - It presents the weekly urea output and urea plant maintenance loss [19][20] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production cost, production profit, and capacity utilization rates (including overall, coal - based, and natural - gas - based) of urea are shown [21][31][34] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - It includes the FOB prices of small - and large - sized urea in the Baltic, Southeast Asia, and China, as well as the price differences and export profits [38][41][51] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - The capacity utilization rates of compound fertilizer and melamine, and the number of days of outstanding orders are presented [52][53] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It shows the factory inventory, port inventory, raw - material inventory of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, the number of urea warehouse receipts, and the trading volume and open interest of the main urea contract [54][59][62] Strategies - Unilateral: Volatile - Inter - period: Go long on the UR05 - 09 spread at low levels - Inter - commodity: None [3]