EG价格低位区间，短期缺乏驱动

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The EG price is in a low - range, and there is a lack of short - term drivers. The overall fundamentals of EG are still weak, with significant inventory accumulation pressure from January to February, which may ease in March. The strategy suggests being cautiously bullish when the price drops to the low - range [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 3788 yuan/ton (a change of + 21 yuan/ton or + 0.56% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 3682 yuan/ton (a change of + 25 yuan/ton or + 0.68% from the previous trading day), and the East China spot basis of EG was - 105 yuan/ton (a decrease of 5 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production gross profit of ethylene - based EG was - 62 US dollars/ton (unchanged from the previous period), and the production gross profit of coal - based syngas - based EG was - 908 yuan/ton (a decrease of 55 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] International Price Difference - Not elaborated on in the text Downstream Sales and Production and Operating Rates - Since mid - January, the Spring Festival maintenance plans have been gradually implemented, and the weaving load and polyester load have accelerated their decline, with weakening rigid demand support [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 89.7 tons (an increase of 3.9 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 64.5 tons (an increase of 2.8 tons month - on - month). The total actual arrivals at the main ports in East China last week were 13.6 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports were 2.8 tons. The total planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week are 12.3 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports are 2.3 tons. Overall, it is neutral, and the inventory at the main ports is expected to remain stable [1]