烧碱山东江苏去库

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market remains weak, but the recent "rush to export" sentiment supports the spot price. The expectation of mercury - free transformation in the future is likely to push up the PVC price. The spot price of caustic soda continues to be weak, with the inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu decreasing this week. The overall supply is at a high level, and the demand is generally weak [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Market Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 5,155 yuan/ton (+84), the East China basis is - 285 yuan/ton (+6), and the South China basis is - 215 yuan/ton (-14) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,870 yuan/ton (+90), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,940 yuan/ton (+70) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 735 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,930 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 52 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 744 yuan/ton (+55), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is 21 yuan/ton (+70), and the PVC export profit is 8.3 US dollars/ton (+20.3) [1]. - Inventory and operation rate: The in - factory inventory of PVC is 29.0 tons (-1.8), the social inventory is 58.5 tons (+0.8), the operation rate of PVC calcium carbide - based production is 79.98% (-0.16%), the operation rate of PVC ethylene - based production is 70.61% (-2.43%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 77.13% (-0.85%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 96.0 tons (+7.6) [1]. Market Analysis - The cancellation of the export tax rebate for PVC since April 1st has led to a high level of export orders. The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market is weak. The supply is abundant, and there are no new maintenance enterprises this week. The downstream operation rate of pipes, profiles remains flat, while that of films decreases. There is an expectation of a decline in operation rate during the Spring Festival. The social inventory is slightly increasing and at a high level compared to the same period. The upstream chlor - alkali production profit has been slightly repaired, but it is still at a low level compared to the same period. The calcium carbide price has increased, and the semi - coke price has slightly decreased. The calcium carbide profit has improved, but the semi - coke profit is still in a loss state. The PVC warehouse receipts are at a high level in the same period, and there is still pressure on the futures market for hedging. The supply - demand of PVC is weak, but the "rush to export" sentiment supports the spot price. The mercury - free transformation mentioned by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment has increased the long - term cost expectation of PVC, but the process is long. Overall, it is expected that the PVC price will be strong [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating and strengthening [4] - Inter - period: Go long on the V05 - 09 spread when it is low [4] - Inter - variety: None [4] Caustic Soda Market Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 1,978 yuan/ton (+9), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 134 yuan/ton (-9) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 590 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,010 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The profit of a single caustic soda product in Shandong is 827 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 266.0 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 455.96 yuan/ton (+80.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 700.29 yuan/ton (+50.00) [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 52.03 tons (+1.07), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 2.71 tons (-0.08), and the operation rate of caustic soda is 87.40% (-0.30%) [2]. - Downstream operation rate: The operation rate of alumina is 84.77% (-0.41%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 50.65% (-5.89%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 88.43% (+0.00%) [2]. Market Analysis - The spot price of caustic soda continues to be weak. The supply - demand of caustic soda is weak. The low - price spot has driven some pre - Spring Festival stocking and purchasing sentiment, and the inventory of caustic soda in Shandong and Jiangsu has decreased this week. The overall supply operation rate is at a high level, and there are no new maintenance enterprises in the future. The downstream purchasing sentiment is average. The operation of alumina plants is relatively stable, but the unloading efficiency is average. The purchase price of 32% caustic soda by major alumina plants in Shandong is 590 yuan/ton; the purchase price of 32% caustic soda by alumina plants in Henan in February has been reduced by 50 to 2,450 yuan/ton (converted to 100%); the purchase price of 50% caustic soda by alumina plants in Shanxi in February has been reduced by 50 to 2,290 yuan/ton (converted to 100%). The anti - involution of alumina has led to a decrease in the long - term demand expectation for caustic soda. The commissioning progress of alumina in Guangxi has been postponed, and the market is pessimistic, resulting in insufficient purchasing power for caustic soda. Non - aluminum industries are gradually entering the seasonal off - season, and there is some pre - Spring Festival stocking and purchasing at low prices. The export orders continue to be sluggish. After the price of liquid chlorine has decreased, the downstream purchasing has improved, and the price has risen again, weakening the cost support of chlor - alkali. The caustic soda warehouse receipts have a certain suppression effect on the futures market. Attention should be paid to the downstream purchasing rhythm [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating [5] - Inter - period: Go long on the SH04 - 05 spread when it is low [5] - Inter - variety: None [5]