蛋白数据日报-20260205

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - According to the weather forecast, there is an expectation of rainfall return in Argentina in February, and the sustainability of the previous drought speculation is insufficient. The probability of severe weather speculation is relatively small as La Nina has basically ended. Recently, due to a shortage of trucks in Brazil, freight rates have increased, and the real has appreciated, making Brazil's premium relatively strong. However, this year's soybean growing season in Brazil has no obvious adverse weather, and the overall harvest is expected to be good. The short - term logistics problems in Brazil are expected to postpone the selling pressure of Brazil's premium. As harvesting progresses, the selling pressure on the premium is expected to impact the domestic market [12]. - In the future, from a unilateral perspective, the absolute price of soybean meal is relatively low and sensitive to positive events. But under the expected selling pressure from South America, there is no condition for a significant unilateral upward trend yet, and it is necessary to wait for the release of the selling pressure. The short - term futures market is expected to show a weak bottom - seeking trend. The price center of US soybeans in this crop year is expected to be higher than that in the previous crop year. From the perspective of Brazil's premium, due to the improvement of Brazil's storage capacity, the appreciation of the real, and the high cost - effectiveness of Brazilian soybeans, the decline of Brazil's premium this year may be less than last year, and the bottom of the futures market is expected to be higher than that in the previous crop year. In China, the domestic soybean crushing and processing has recently recovered to a high level, and downstream procurement is basically over. Based on domestic procurement, imported soybean auctions, and targeted sales, it is estimated that the soybean inventory of domestic oil mills will still be relatively abundant year - on - year by the end of March, and the spot basis of soybean meal is expected to weaken [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Spot Basis Data - On February 4th, the basis of the 43% soybean meal spot in Dalian was 457, a decrease of 16. In Tianjin, it was 457; in Rizhao, it was 337, a decrease of 16; in Zhangjiagang, it was 377; in Dongguan, it was 357; in Zhanjiang, it was 377; in Fangcheng, it was 377. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 112, a decrease of 5. The M3 - 5 was 258, a decrease of 17, and the RNS - 9 was - 45, a decrease of 7 [4]. Inventory Data - The content shows the inventory trends of Chinese port soybeans, national major oil mills' soybean meal, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises from 2020 - 2026 [5][6]. 开机 and压榨情况 - The content shows the trends of the operating rate and soybean crushing volume of national major oil mills from 2020 - 2026 [9][10]. Spread and International Data - The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 676, and the futures spread of the main contract was 476, a decrease of 2. The 2025 soybean CNF premium, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, and imported soybean futures gross profit are also presented [17].