航运衍生品数据日报-20260205

Report Overview - The report is a shipping derivatives data daily report by the Energy and Chemical Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute, dated February 5, 2026 [2][3] 1. Shipping Freight Index - Current and Previous Values and Fluctuations: The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, SCFI - Northwest Europe, SCFIS - Northwest Europe, and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1317, 1176, 1867, 1101, 2605, 1418, 1792, and 2424 respectively. The previous values are 1458, 1209, 2084, 1294, 2896, 1595, 1859, and 2756 respectively. The corresponding percentage changes are -9.68%, -2.74%, -10.41%, -14.91%, -10.05%, -11.10%, -3.60%, and -12.05% [4] 2. Geopolitical Situation - Mixed Signals from US - Iran: There are mixed signals between the US and Iran. The probability of military strikes predicted by the market has slightly decreased. Iranian senior officials said that efforts to start negotiations with the US are making progress. The Wall Street Journal reported that the possibility of the US launching an air strike on Iran in the near - term is low as the US is still deploying air defense capabilities in the region. The "Lincoln" aircraft carrier has left the Oman Sea and entered the Indian Ocean [5] 3. Spot Market of Container Shipping on European Routes (EC) - Market Condition: The market is in a volatile state. The spot price shows a pre - holiday decline, with different adjustments among alliances. For the GEMINI alliance, Maersk's opening price in WK6 dropped to $2000 - 2100 per FEU, and Hapag - Lloyd maintained at $2300 - 2500 per FEU; in NK7, Maersk further lowered to $1995 per FEU, while Hapag - Lloyd remained stable. For the OA alliance, the price in WK6 slightly dropped to around $2500 per FBU, and in WK7, COSCO Shipping in North China ports adjusted to $2200 - 2300 per FBU, and East China ports may follow, with an overall range of $2200 - 2300 per FEU. For the PA alliance, the price fluctuated between $2200 - 2400 per FEU in WK6, and in WK7, affected by ONE's WK8 list price of $2000 per FEU, the average price approached $2000 per FEU, with some special prices as low as $1800 per FEU. MSC also slightly lowered its price following the market trend. Due to the pre - Spring Festival cargo volume vacuum period, the quotes of all alliances showed a downward trend [6] 4. Core Viewpoint - Market Trend: The container shipping European line (EC) spot and futures markets rebounded today, mainly due to the unexpectedly narrowed decline of the SCFIS index and the improvement of the commodity market atmosphere. After a significant decline, the market gradually made up for the losses, with strong spot - futures linkage. In the short - term, it is restricted by pre - holiday freight rates, and in the long - term, it focuses on the supply - demand game after the holiday. The short - term repair trend is clear but restricted by post - holiday expectations. On the spot side, there is no clear main line, and pre - holiday freight rates are basically determined, with shipping companies such as Maersk slightly lowering their quotes. After the holiday, the pressure is prominent, and freight rates may fall below $2000 to $1800. The effect of shipping companies' price - increasing and stabilizing measures is expected to be poor. The impact of photovoltaic rush shipments needs to be confirmed by March bookings and is limited [8] 5. Investment Strategy - Trading Strategy: The cost - effectiveness of short - selling in the short - term has decreased. It is recommended to focus on going long on contract 06 at low positions and short - selling contract 10 during the off - season when the price rebounds [9]