乌拉尔贴水下降导致俄罗斯财政收入下降

Report Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints - Due to India's continued reduction in Russian oil purchases and the widening discount of Urals crude, Russia's fiscal revenue is expected to be significantly impacted, which may prompt Russia to make compromises on the Russia-Ukraine issue in the future [3] - The biggest downside risk to oil prices this year comes from the transformation of Russian oil from sanctioned oil to compliant oil after changes in sanctions [3] Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - On February 5, a survey showed that due to the disruption of Venezuela's oil exports and other OPEC members implementing a three - month freeze on production increases, OPEC's crude oil production decreased last month. In January, OPEC's daily oil production was 28.83 million barrels, a decrease of 230,000 barrels per day from the previous month. About one - third of the decline was caused by Venezuela, and other members also slightly cut production [2] - On February 4, Russia's government oil revenue in January fell to its lowest in more than five years. Weak global oil prices, a wider discount on Russian oil, and a stronger ruble dragged down the fiscal situation. In January, oil - related taxes were halved year - on - year to 281.7 billion rubles ($3.7 billion), and the combined oil and gas revenue also dropped 50% to 393.3 billion rubles. The combined oil and gas accounts for about a quarter of Russia's fiscal revenue [2] - In recent months, India has cut Russian oil purchases, especially after sanctions on major Russian producers. Although the discounts are still attractive, at least three refineries are seeking government clarification, and two have suspended purchases. India's oil minister expects imports from Russia to continue to decline, and refineries want to increase supplies from Canada and the US [2] Investment Logic - India's continued reduction in Russian oil purchases and the widening discount of Urals crude are expected to significantly impact Russia's fiscal revenue, which may prompt Russia to make compromises on the Russia - Ukraine issue. The biggest downside risk to oil prices this year is the transformation of Russian oil from sanctioned oil to compliant oil after changes in sanctions [3] Strategy - Oil prices will fluctuate in a short - term range and a short - position allocation is recommended in the medium term [4] Risk - Downside risks: Relaxation of Russian oil sanctions, macro black - swan events [4] - Upside risks: Tighter supply of sanctioned oil (Russia, Iran, Venezuela), large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle - East conflicts [4]