企业逢低备货积极性仍差，铅价难有强劲表现

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [4] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [4] 2. Core View of the Report - In January 2026, lead prices trended weaker with oscillations. The increasing losses in secondary lead production forced large - scale production cuts. Terminal demand was differentiated but overall weak, and the continuous accumulation of domestic visible inventory suppressed the price center. In February, the Spring Festival holiday will intensify the pattern of both supply and demand decline. The concentrated shutdown of upstream and downstream will put the market into a closed state. The contraction of the supply side is expected to relieve the inventory pressure, but the lag in terminal resumption of work may keep the price weakly oscillating near the cost line. It is expected that the lead price will oscillate between 16,600 yuan/ton and 17,800 yuan/ton in February [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On February 4, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$51.98/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,425 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to 25.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,500 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,400 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,475 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The price of scrap electric vehicle batteries changed by -25 yuan/ton to 9,950 yuan/ton, the price of scrap white shells changed by -25 yuan/ton to 10,050 yuan/ton, and the price of scrap black shells changed by -25 yuan/ton to 10,225 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On February 4, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,640 yuan/ton and closed at 16,590 yuan/ton, a change of -50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 50,833 lots, a change of -21,462 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 58,276 lots, a change of 3,527 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price oscillated, with the highest point reaching 16,670 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,540 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,585 yuan/ton and closed at 16,620 yuan/ton, a 0.18% increase compared with the afternoon closing price of the previous day. The SMM 1 lead price dropped by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The Shanghai lead futures oscillated weakly. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2506 contract; in Hunan, smelters' quotes at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price had difficulty in making transactions, and traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2506 contract; in Anhui and Jiangxi, smelters' inventories were low, and they quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price for ex - factory sales; in Guangdong, holders' ex - factory supplies were quoted at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price for transactions. Lead prices continued to weaken, downstream maintained rigid demand procurement, and the enthusiasm for stocking at low prices was poor. The overall spot market was weak [2] Inventory - On February 4, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 37,000 tons, a change of 600 tons compared with the same period last week. As of February 4, the LME lead inventory was 232,850 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [3]