液化石油气日报：地缘扰动仍存，市场多空因素交织-20260205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, focus on the development of the Iran situation; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The energy sector has been significantly affected by the Iran situation. The news of the planned negotiation between Iran and the US led to a sharp decline in oil prices, but the situation has since become more complex, increasing market concerns and causing a rebound in the geopolitical premium of crude oil. The agreement between the US and India will reduce the consumption capacity of Russian oil and support international oil prices. The rise in crude oil prices has led to an increase in downstream energy and chemical products including LPG. The Iran situation remains uncertain, and the upcoming negotiation between the US and Iran on February 6 may cause market fluctuations [1] - From the perspective of LPG's fundamentals, there are both bullish and bearish factors. Overseas supply has tightened marginally, and Saudi Arabia has raised its February CP. However, high raw material costs have suppressed the profits of downstream PDH and other devices, resulting in a negative feedback on demand. The price inversion between ether - after carbon four and civil gas has also put additional pressure on the PG market. The game between warehouse receipts and delivery has disrupted the market, especially for the PG2603 contract. If the impact of the macro and geopolitical factors weakens, the market may enter a range - bound state again. In the medium term, the LPG balance sheet is expected to have an oversupply situation, and the supply side has relatively high elasticity [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory Market Analysis - On February 4, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4450 - 4500 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3790 - 4150 yuan/ton; North China market, 4200 - 4520 yuan/ton; East China market, 4120 - 4400 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4840 - 5130 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4300 - 4500 yuan/ton; South China market, 4798 - 4890 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of March 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China, China, was 620 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton, and the price of butane was 610 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4746 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton, and butane was 4669 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 612 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton, and the price of butane was 602 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4685 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton, and butane was 4608 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, pay attention to the development of the Iran situation. Inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies are not provided [3]