贵金属日报2026-02-05-20260205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metals are in a stage of shock repair after technical oversold. Short - covering and position reconstruction are driving prices to test the upward resistance. The significantly lower - than - expected ADP employment data in the US in January strengthens the expectations of economic slowdown and the Fed's accelerated interest rate cuts, which is bullish for precious metals. However, the economic resilience and the rising long - term US Treasury yields limit the upward space. In the short term, it is expected to remain oscillating strongly. The strategy is to remain on the sidelines for the time being. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 1050 - 1300 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 22000 - 25000 yuan/kilogram [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - Shanghai gold rose 4.20% to 1108.80 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver rose 5.93% to 22393.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold rose 6.83% to 4970.50 US dollars/ounce, COMEX silver rose 10.27% to 84.92 US dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.28%, and the US dollar index was reported at 97.37 [2] - After the market squeezed out leveraged positions, precious metals continued the shock repair market on Tuesday. The current market is in a state of short - covering and position reconstruction after technical oversold. In addition, judging from the callback amplitude in the past two days, investors are carefully testing the upward resistance of the market [2] - The ADP data in January 2026 showed that the US private sector only added 22,000 jobs, far lower than expected, confirming the continuous slowdown of the labor market. Non - essential industries such as manufacturing and professional/commercial services are in a state of contraction, and large - scale enterprise layoffs are prominent. However, essential industries such as education and medical care still maintain strong resilience [2] - The postponement of the January non - farm payrolls report and the significantly lower - than - expected ADP data will strengthen the judgment of the US economic slowdown. Coupled with the stance of the current Fed voting members, it may further promote the market's expectation of an accelerated future interest rate cut rhythm. On the other hand, the stable performance of essential industries such as education and medical care supports the economy, and the ISM non - manufacturing PMI has not deteriorated significantly, indicating that the US economy still has certain resilience, and the Fed's interest rate cut amplitude may still remain relatively cautious [3] - The US Treasury's quarterly refinancing statement kept the long - term Treasury issuance scale unchanged and did not release relevant signals to cut the long - term bond supply, which triggered market disappointment and pushed up the long - term US Treasury yields. In terms of short - term bond supply, the issuance scale of short - term Treasury bills will be gradually reduced before the April tax period, and the net supply is expected to decrease by 250 - 300 billion US dollars. At the same time, the Treasury will closely monitor the Fed's short - term Treasury purchase operations and the overall market demand [3] 3.2 Strategy View - The current precious metals are in the shock repair stage after technical oversold. Short - covering and position reconstruction drive prices to test the upward resistance. The significantly lower - than - expected ADP employment data in the US in January strengthens the expectations of economic slowdown and the Fed's accelerated interest rate cuts, which is bullish for precious metals. However, the economic resilience and the rising long - term US Treasury yields limit the upward space. In the short term, it is expected to remain oscillating strongly. The strategy is to remain on the sidelines for the time being. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 1050 - 1300 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 22000 - 25000 yuan/kilogram [4] 3.3 Key Data Summary - The report provides detailed data on gold and silver, including closing prices, trading volumes, open interest, inventories, and basis differences in different markets (COMEX, LBMA, SHFE, etc.), as well as the changes and historical quantiles of these data [7] - It also shows the data of major gold and silver ETF holdings, including the closing price, holding volume, precipitation funds, trading volume, and their daily changes and historical quantiles [56]