Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Overall, in January, the supply of soda ash increased, demand was weakly stable, and enterprise inventories slightly accumulated, with fundamental pressure still present. In February, the supply level still has room for improvement, and as the Spring Festival approaches and downstream enterprises shut down for holidays, the demand for soda ash will continue to shrink. Therefore, the loose supply - demand situation of soda ash is expected to deepen, and the inventory pressure on enterprises before the Spring Festival will further increase. Meanwhile, the warming of external macro - sentiment, important domestic meetings in early March, and the trends of coal and black varieties in the futures market all have a linkage effect on the futures price of soda ash. It is expected that the futures price will continue to fluctuate in the bottom - range in February, and the oversupply situation will continue to deepen in the medium - term. If there are no unexpectedly positive factors in the macro and policy aspects, the futures and spot prices of soda ash will be under long - term pressure. Attention should be paid to the full - production time of new capacities, changes in enterprise inventories, purchasing power of the middle and lower reaches, downstream production capacities and operating conditions, macro - policies, and the overall sentiment of the commodity market [4][24]. Summary by Directory Supply Side - In January, there were few domestic device maintenance enterprises, and with the release of new capacities, the supply steadily recovered. In February, there will still be enterprises resuming production after maintenance, and the new capacities will continue to increase, so the supply in February is expected to further increase. As of January 30, the overall operating rate of soda ash devices was 84.19%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.89%; the weekly output of soda ash was 78.31 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.14 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 6.46 tons. The total output of soda ash in January was about 3.4138 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 233,300 tons, with a growth rate of 7.34%. In February, Southern Alkali Industry has a maintenance plan, and other enterprises have no clear maintenance plans for the time being. However, there will still be enterprises resuming production after maintenance, and the load of new capacities will continue to increase, so the supply level of soda ash will increase again, and it is possible that the weekly output will exceed 800,000 tons [6]. - In January, the inventory of soda ash enterprises first increased and then decreased, but it is still at a high level compared to the same period in history. As of January 30, the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.5442 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,000 tons, with a growth rate of 1.51%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 828,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36,000 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 716,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 194,000 tons. Due to the impact of the Spring Festival in February, downstream enterprises will shut down for holidays and logistics will stop, so there is an expectation of seasonal inventory accumulation, and the market will still face relatively high inventory pressure year - on - year after the Spring Festival [8][9]. - In January, the profit of the soda ash joint - alkali process slightly improved, while the profit of the ammonia - alkali process continued to decline, but the overall situation was still in a loss. As of January 30, the production cost of soda ash for ammonia - alkali manufacturers in North China was 1,380.35 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7.95 yuan/ton, and the profit margin of soda ash manufacturers was - 160.35 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7.95 yuan/ton; the production cost of soda ash for joint - alkali manufacturers in East China was 1,274.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 13.5 yuan/ton, and the profit margin of soda ash manufacturers was - 94.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 13.5 yuan/ton. In February, the supply - demand situation may not improve, and it is expected that the industry profit will continue to be in a loss. In the medium - term, in the long - cycle of soda ash oversupply, low industry profit may become the norm, but continuous industry losses will support a partial reduction in phased supply [10]. Demand Side - In January, the supply of float glass continued to decline, and there is still an expectation of further decline in February. As of January 30, 2026, the production profit of float glass using coal as raw material was - 68.50 (- 3.39) yuan/ton, the production profit using petroleum coke as raw material was 1.07 (+ 2.85) yuan/ton, and the production profit using natural gas as raw material was - 155.12 (+ 3.57) yuan/ton. Except for the coal - based process, the process profits of petroleum coke and natural gas improved month - on - month, but the overall industry profit was still poor. In January, 1 float glass production line was ignited, 3 production lines were shut down for water release, and 1 previously ignited production line started to produce glass, resulting in little change in the number of operating production lines. The weekly output decreased from 1.075125 million tons to 1.056965 million tons, and the industry operating rate decreased from 73.04% to 71.86%. After the Spring Festival, there are still plans to shut down production lines for cold repair, with a maximum daily melting volume of 2,500 tons per day. If implemented, the daily melting volume of float glass in production will drop to about 148,500 tons [13]. - In January, the inventory of float glass enterprises decreased. The ending inventory decreased from 56.866 million weight boxes to 52.564 million weight boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 7.57%, and it has now fallen to the historical median level. Before the Spring Festival, there is an expectation of seasonal inventory accumulation for glass factories. In addition, the inventory levels of middle - stream goods in core regions such as Hebei and Hubei are also at a high level, and the market will face double high - inventory pressures from manufacturers and traders after the Spring Festival [14]. - As of December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year decline in real estate development investment was - 17.20% (- 1.30%), the cumulative year - on - year decline in real estate construction area was - 10.00% (- 0.40%), the cumulative year - on - year decline in newly started construction area was - 20.40% (+ 0.10%), the cumulative year - on - year decline in real estate completion area was - 18.10% (- 0.10%), and the cumulative year - on - year decline in commercial housing sales area was - 8.70% (- 0.90%). In December 2025, the production and sales of automobiles decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The production and sales of automobiles in December were 3.296 million and 3.272 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 236,000 and 157,000 respectively. From January to December 2025, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.4% in production and 9.4% in sales [15][17]. - As of December 2025, the monthly actual consumption of soda ash was 3.11 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 80,000 tons, with a growth rate of 2.64%. In February, the domestic soda ash market is not optimistic, with prices fluctuating at the bottom and expectations of decreased transactions and consumption. In December 2025, China's soda ash imports were 3,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,200 tons, with a growth rate of 1278%; exports were 232,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 43,400 tons, with a growth rate of 22.91%. From January to December, the cumulative imports were 25,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 97.41%; the cumulative exports were 2.194 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 79.75%. It is expected that in 2026, the high - level export of soda ash will continue, and the import window is almost non - existent [19]. Recent Macro - event Dynamics - On January 30, 2026, US President Trump officially nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman to replace Jerome Powell, whose term will end in May 2026. Warsh is expected to support interest rate cuts but will not adopt the more radical policy - easing measures advocated by some other potential candidates, which has caused significant fluctuations in the global financial market, with a neutral - bearish rating [21]. - The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged as expected. Fed Chairman Powell said that the economic growth outlook has significantly improved, and the risks of inflation and employment have both decreased, suggesting that there is no urgent need to further reduce borrowing costs. This is the first pause after a continuous interest - rate cut cycle, and this result was widely expected in the financial market, with a neutral rating [21]. - The Iranian President has ordered the start of nuclear negotiations with the US, and the two sides are likely to hold high - level talks in Istanbul, Turkey on February 6, with a neutral rating [21]. Summary and Outlook - Overall, in January, the supply of soda ash increased, demand was weakly stable, and enterprise inventories slightly accumulated, with fundamental pressure still present. In February, the supply level still has room for improvement, and as the Spring Festival approaches and downstream enterprises shut down for holidays, the demand for soda ash will continue to shrink. The loose supply - demand situation of soda ash is expected to deepen, and the inventory pressure on enterprises before the Spring Festival will further increase. The warming of external macro - sentiment, important domestic meetings in early March, and the trends of coal and black varieties in the futures market all have a linkage effect on the futures price of soda ash. It is expected that the futures price of soda ash will continue to fluctuate in a wide range in February. In the medium - term, the oversupply situation will continue to deepen. If there are no unexpectedly positive factors in the macro and policy aspects, the futures and spot prices of soda ash will be under long - term pressure. Attention should be paid to the full - production time of new capacities, changes in enterprise inventories, purchasing power of the middle and lower reaches, downstream production capacities and operating conditions, macro - policies, and the overall sentiment of the commodity market [24].
纯碱期货月报（202602）-20260203
An Liang Qi Huo·2026-02-03 12:59