Haitong Securities International·2026-02-03 12:57Investment Focus - The report highlights the value of consumer stocks in a volatile market, recommending a focus on companies like Guizhou Moutai, Eastroc Beverage, and Yili Group, all rated as "Outperform" [1]. Industry Overview - In January 2026, four out of eight tracked essential consumer sectors showed positive growth, including condiments, frozen foods, soft drinks, and dining, while four sectors, such as mid-to-high-end baijiu, dairy products, and beer, experienced declines [3][9]. - The overall consumer industry is characterized by a recovery in basic demand while hedonic consumption remains under pressure, indicating a shift in consumer spending towards essential goods [9]. Revenue and Growth Analysis - The revenue for the mid-to-high-end baijiu sector in January was 470 billion yuan, down 14.0% year-on-year, while the revenue for the mass-market baijiu sector was 229 billion yuan, down 3.0% year-on-year [10][11]. - The soft drink sector reported a revenue of 962 billion yuan in January, with a year-on-year growth of 1.1%, indicating a cautious recovery in demand [17]. - The frozen food sector saw a revenue of 150 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 8.0%, driven by pre-Spring Festival stocking and low temperatures [16]. Price Trends - The report notes that the wholesale prices of major baijiu brands like Guizhou Moutai remained stable, while some brands faced downward price pressures due to high inventory levels [4][21]. - The average discount rates for liquid milk and condiments increased compared to the previous month, reflecting intensified market competition [35][37]. Market Dynamics - The report identifies four favorable funding factors for the essential consumer sector, including significant volatility in global capital markets, declining risk-free interest rates, increased foreign capital allocation to China, and low institutional allocation levels [6]. - The report suggests focusing on companies that align with both domestic and foreign institutional preferences, as well as those showing improvements in fundamentals and dividend yields [6].