光大期货能化商品日报（2026年2月5日）-20260205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy - chemical products on February 5, 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride, and gives an "oscillating" view for each product [1][2][4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Crude Oil: On Wednesday, oil prices rose significantly. WTI March contract rose $1.93 to $65.14/barrel (3.05% increase), Brent April contract rose $2.13 to $69.46/barrel (3.16% increase), and SC2603 rose 15.2 yuan to 473.5 yuan/barrel (3.32% increase). The US - Iran negotiation is facing twists and turns. EIA reported that US crude and distillate inventories decreased while gasoline inventories increased last week. Cold - snap - induced output decline supports oil prices, but geopolitical variables cause fluctuations. It is recommended that investors participate with light positions [1]. - Fuel Oil: On Wednesday, the main contracts of fuel oil (FU2603) and low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2604) rebounded. The supply of both high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be sufficient, while the bunker fuel加注 activity is expected to increase before the Spring Festival. Affected by geopolitics and crude oil costs, the fundamentals are mixed with long and short factors, and there is pressure in the follow - up. Attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations [2]. - Asphalt: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract (BU2603) rebounded. This week, the social inventory rate increased, the refinery inventory level decreased, and the plant operating rate decreased. In the early and middle of February, the inventory in the north is for downstream stocking, and the inventory in the south has some arbitrage demand. During the Spring Festival, the refinery and social inventories will increase. The asphalt is less volatile than crude oil, and the cracking spread has been repaired. The basis has weakened. Refineries are looking for alternative raw materials, and the production schedule may be adjusted later. Attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations and raw material imports [2][4]. - Polyester: TA605, EG2605, and PX 603 all rose on Wednesday. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are slightly differentiated and generally weak. Multiple MEG devices have restart, maintenance, and shutdown plans. With the decline of crude oil prices and the implementation of polyester production cuts, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the first quarter. Polyester raw material prices are expected to oscillate with costs. Attention should be paid to unexpected device changes, cost - end price fluctuations, and the risk of insufficient demand recovery in late February [4]. - Rubber: On Wednesday, the main rubber contracts (RU2605, NR, BR) all rose. As of February 1, China's natural rubber social inventory increased. The natural rubber exports from Cote d'Ivoire in January decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The rubber fundamentals show increasing supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the impact of external macro - factors [5]. - Methanol: On Wednesday, the spot prices in different regions and the prices of downstream products are given. The domestic methanol production is expected to decrease slightly in February, and the import volume will decline. The demand from eastern MTO devices will decrease. The decline in Iranian shipments will support the price, but the reduction of MTO device load may put pressure on inventory reduction. The methanol price is expected to oscillate widely at a low level [5]. - Polyolefin: On Wednesday, the prices and production profits of polypropylene and polyethylene are provided. The supply is expected to increase slightly. In February, downstream enterprises will enter the holiday, leading to passive inventory increase. After the Spring Festival, the market will start to digest inventory. The fundamentals are not strongly supported in February, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation of refineries and society. The polyolefin price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. - Polyvinyl Chloride: On Wednesday, the PVC market prices in East, North, and South China adjusted strongly. In February, the enterprise maintenance is less, and the production will remain high. The real - estate construction is weakening, and the demand for PVC downstream products is limited. The "rush - to - export" demand is generated due to the cancellation of export tax - rebate on April 1. There is an expectation of supply reduction in the future, and the PVC price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6][7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on February 5, 2026, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, basis change, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that as of the week ending January 30, US crude and distillate inventories decreased while gasoline inventories increased due to winter storms. Crude oil production dropped to the lowest level since November 2024, and the crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma decreased by 743,000 barrels [11]. - The Iranian Foreign Minister clarified the official position on the Iran - US talks in Oman, stating that the talks will be held at around 10 a.m. on the 6th in Muscat. Earlier, an Iranian official source said the talks were cancelled due to new US conditions and differences in the negotiation issues [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - 4.1 Main Contract Price: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - number rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European - line container shipping, p - xylene, and bottle - chip [13][15][17][19][21][23][25][27][28]. - 4.2 Main Contract Basis: The report shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle - chip [30][33][37][38][40][41]. - 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spread: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as fuel oil (01 - 05, 05 - 09), asphalt (main and sub - main contracts), European - line container shipping index monthly spread, PTA (01 - 05, 05 - 09), ethylene glycol (01 - 05, 05 - 09), PP (01 - 05, 05 - 09), LLDPE (01 - 05, 05 - 09), and natural rubber (01 - 05, 05 - 09) [43][45][48][51][53][55][57]. - 4.4 Inter - variety Spread: The report shows the spread and ratio charts of inter - variety of various energy - chemical products, such as crude oil (internal and external markets, B - W), fuel oil (high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio), BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber spread [59][62][64]. - 4.5 Production Profit: The report presents the production profit and processing fee charts of various energy - chemical products, such as LLDPE, PP, PTA processing fee, and ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash - flow [66][68]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - Zhong Meiyan: Deputy Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. She has won multiple "Outstanding Analyst" awards and led the energy research team to win many industry service awards. She has over a decade of experience in futures derivatives market research and has served many listed companies [71]. - Du Bingqin: Director of Energy and Chemical Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in Applied Economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison. She has won multiple industry analyst awards and her team has won industry service awards. She is deeply involved in domestic and foreign energy industry research [72]. - Di Yilin: Analyst of natural rubber and polyester at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in finance. She has won multiple analyst awards and her team has won a research team award. She is mainly engaged in the research of related futures varieties [73]. - Peng Haibo: Analyst of methanol, propylene, pure benzene, PE, PP, and PVC at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with an engineering master's degree. He has passed the CFA Level III exam and has experience combining financial theory with industrial operations [74].