金融期货早评-20260205

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In February, the global financial market enters a multi - variable intertwined period with a triple game among global order fission, Fed policy disputes, and China's economic resilience. The market pricing logic shifts from single - liquidity driven to a two - dimensional one of policy fit and global pattern adaptability [2] - The fission of the global order intensifies the implementation difficulty of the "rate - cut + balance - sheet reduction" policy if Jovash comes to power. China's economy becomes a global anchor of certainty, and the industrial main line shows characteristics of differentiation and aggregation [2] - The RMB exchange rate is affected by the mixed US economic data. The US dollar index lacks upward momentum, and the RMB exchange rate may have reduced endogenous appreciation power and enhanced linkage with the US dollar index [3] - Stock index is expected to adjust before the Spring Festival and may strengthen again after the festival. Treasury bonds will maintain a short - term shock [5][7] - The freight rate of the container shipping European line will continue to fluctuate in the short term, with limited upside and downside space [9][11] - The volatility of the lithium carbonate futures market is at a historical high, and it is recommended to consider selling volatility strategies and taking a long position on dips in the medium - to - long term. Industrial silicon and polysilicon will maintain a shock pattern [12] - Copper prices will be mainly in shock before the festival, with a low risk - return ratio. Aluminum prices are expected to rise in the long - term and adjust in the short - term. Alumina is expected to be weak in the long - term and have short - term disturbances. Zinc, nickel - stainless steel, tin, and lead will maintain a shock pattern [15][17] - The external soybean market will be strong in the short - term, and the internal soybean meal market will follow the cost rebound in the short - term. Vegetable oils will enter a shock period [23][26] - Fuel oil will run weakly, low - sulfur fuel oil will have a low cracking spread, and asphalt will be in a sideways consolidation [28][30] - Platinum and palladium are expected to have a bull market in the medium - to - long term, and gold and silver will continue to rise in the medium - to - long term with short - term shock adjustments [33][35] - Pulp and offset paper will be in a range - bound shock. LPG will be affected by geopolitics in the short - term. PX - PTA is recommended to go long on dips, and PTA's high processing fees are expected to be difficult to maintain. MEG - bottle chips will lack upward drivers. Polyolefins will be in a shock consolidation. Pure benzene - styrene will be affected by export rumors. Rubber will show a differentiated trend [39][40][41][42][43][44][46][48][51] - Urea prices are expected to decline in the medium - to - long term, and it is recommended to exit long positions. Glass and soda ash will continue to shock [56][57][58][60] - Propylene's fundamentals are relatively stable, and its cost fluctuates greatly. Rebar and hot - rolled coils will be in a bottom - range shock. Iron ore is expected to increase production. The rebound of coking coal and coke is not expected to be strong and sustainable. Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese will be in a shock pattern with bottom support and upper pressure [60][62] - The price of live pigs may be affected by cold snaps in the short - term. Cotton prices are expected to rise but are constrained by the internal - external price difference. The upward space of domestic sugar prices is limited. Egg prices are expected to decline. Apples may be difficult to fall due to delivery contradictions. Red dates will be in a low - level shock. Logs may have increased price fluctuations [66][67][68][69][73][78][79][80] Summary by Directory Financial Futures - Macro: The US ADP employment data in January was lower than expected. The central bank deployed key work in the credit market in 2026, and the US will release important economic data such as non - farm employment and CPI inflation reports [1] - RMB Exchange Rate: The US economic data is mixed. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar declined due to the slight strengthening of the US dollar index. It is recommended that export enterprises lock in forward exchange settlement on rallies, and import enterprises adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy [3][4] - Stock Index: Before the Spring Festival, the stock index may adjust due to the tightening of funds and risk - aversion by investors. After the festival, it may strengthen again if the spring rally continues [5][7] - Treasury Bonds: The treasury bonds will maintain a short - term shock due to the lack of strong driving factors [7][8] - Container Shipping European Line: The market is affected by geopolitical risks and weak fundamentals. The freight rate will continue to fluctuate in the short term, with limited upside and downside space [9][10][11] Commodities New Energy - Lithium Carbonate: The downstream restocking is coming to an end, and the spot prices of the lithium battery industry chain are weakening. It is recommended to consider selling volatility strategies and taking a long position on dips in the medium - to - long term [12] - Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon: The spot market of the industrial silicon and photovoltaic industry chains is generally weak. In the short term, industrial silicon prices will be in a shock pattern, and it is recommended to reduce positions before the Spring Festival for polysilicon [12][13][14] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The import window opening will increase post - festival supply. Copper prices will be mainly in shock before the festival, with a low risk - return ratio [15][16] - Aluminum Industry Chain: Aluminum prices are expected to rise in the long - term and adjust in the short - term. Alumina is expected to be weak in the long - term and have short - term disturbances. Zinc, nickel - stainless steel, tin, and lead will maintain a shock pattern [17][18][19][20][22] Oils and Fats, Feeds - Oilseeds: The external soybean market is supported by the expected increase in Chinese purchases, and the internal soybean meal market will follow the cost rebound in the short - term. The rapeseed meal is affected by import rumors and weak demand [23][24][25] - Vegetable Oils: The vegetable oil market will enter a shock period, and it is recommended to pay attention to the MPOB data [26][27] Energy and Oil and Gas - Fuel Oil: The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is gradually recovering, and the demand is weak. The low - sulfur fuel oil has sufficient supply and stable demand, with limited upward drivers [28][29] - Asphalt: The asphalt price is in a sideways consolidation. The short - term price will be in shock, with limited upside and downside space [30][31] Precious Metals - Platinum & Palladium: The prices are affected by multiple factors such as sector linkage and policy uncertainties. They are expected to have a bull market in the medium - to - long term, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [33][34][35] - Gold & Silver: The prices are in a short - term shock adjustment and are expected to rise in the medium - to - long term. It is recommended to go long on dips [35][36][37][38] Chemicals - Pulp - Offset Paper: The pulp and offset paper markets will be in a range - bound shock. It is recommended to wait and hold previous short positions [39][40] - LPG: The LPG market is affected by geopolitical factors in the short - term. The supply is neutral - low, and the demand is weak due to PDH maintenance [40][41] - PTA - PX: The PX - PTA market is affected by supply and demand. It is recommended to go long on dips for PX and short the processing fees of PTA [42][43] - MEG - Bottle Chips: The MEG market lacks upward drivers and is expected to be in a range - bound shock. It is recommended to pay attention to geopolitical risks [43][44][46] - Polyolefins: The polyolefin market will be in a shock consolidation. The short - term pattern of PP is slightly stronger than that of PE, and it is recommended to wait and see [46][47][48] - Pure Benzene - Styrene: The pure benzene - styrene market is affected by export rumors. The short - term supply of styrene will increase, and it is recommended to wait and see [48][49][50] - Rubber: The rubber market shows a differentiated trend. Natural rubber may be affected by inventory and demand, and synthetic rubber is affected by the price of butadiene. It is recommended to hold light positions [51][54][57] - Urea: The urea price is expected to decline in the medium - to - long term, and it is recommended to exit long positions [56][57] - Glass & Soda Ash: The glass and soda ash markets will continue to shock, with the soda ash supply remaining high in the long - term and the glass in a supply - demand weak pattern [58][59][60] - Propylene: The propylene market is affected by cost and supply - demand. The cost fluctuates greatly, and the short - term fundamentals can provide some support [60][61] Building Materials and Metals - Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coils: The rebar and hot - rolled coils will be in a bottom - range shock due to the contradiction between supply and demand. The price is supported by cost and policy [62] - Iron Ore: The iron ore market is in a pre - festival off - season. The supply is abundant, and the demand is expected to increase. The price has limited downside space [62] - Coking Coal & Coke: The rebound of coking coal and coke is not expected to be strong and sustainable due to factors such as seasonal demand and cost transmission [62][63] - Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese: The ferrosilicon and ferromanganese will be in a shock pattern with bottom support and upper pressure due to the contradiction between cost support and supply - demand pressure [64][65] Agricultural and Soft Commodities - Live Pigs: The price of live pigs may be affected by cold snaps in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [66][67][68] - Cotton: The cotton price is expected to rise but is constrained by the internal - external price difference. It is recommended to go long on dips [68][69] - Sugar: The upward space of domestic sugar prices is limited due to weak demand and low international sugar prices [69][70][72] - Eggs: The egg price is expected to decline due to the "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern [73] - Apples: The apple market is in the middle - late stage of stocking. The price may be difficult to fall due to delivery contradictions [78][79] - Red Dates: The red date market will be in a low - level shock, and the price will face pressure in the long - term [79][80] - Logs: The log market may have increased price fluctuations due to the suspension of some delivery warehouses and low inventory. It is recommended to wait and see [81][82][83]