新能源及有色金属日报：现货贴水开始扩大-20260205

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [6] - Arbitrage: Neutral [6] 2. Core Viewpoints - The downstream has entered the holiday period, with a decline in the output of downstream processed products. The spot market trading is sluggish due to the stop of price decline and the price - holding of traders, and the spot discount continues to widen. However, this year's seasonal off - season is in sync with previous years, and the previous price increase has no negative feedback on downstream consumption. Social inventories have entered the early stage of accumulation, with a relatively slow accumulation rate, and the peak inventory is expected to be 20 - 250,000 tons. The import TC of zinc ore continues to decline, and it is difficult to rise before the new Benchmark is signed. Although the prices of sulfuric acid and by - products continue to rise, the comprehensive smelting still faces some losses, and the pressure of insufficient zinc ingot supply is not obvious. In the long term, consumption and macro factors are still optimistic [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Data - Spot: The LME zinc spot premium is -$25.89 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 24,900 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 45 yuan/ton; the SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 170 yuan/ton to 24,900 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 45 yuan/ton; the Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 24,850 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 95 yuan/ton [2] - Futures: On February 4, 2026, the main contract of SHFE zinc opened at 24,800 yuan/ton and closed at 24,885 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 208,461 lots, and the position was 79,219 lots. The highest price during the day was 25,010 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 24,720 yuan/ton [3] - Inventory: As of February 4, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions of SMM was 125,700 tons, an increase of 8,600 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 108,200 tons, a decrease of 775 tons from the previous trading day [4]