固定收益|点评报告：银行存款短期化，而非流失化

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The Chinese banking industry's deposits may become "short - term" rather than "lost". The high and rising household savings rate in China means there is no basis for deposit loss. With the maturity of time deposits and the low - interest - rate environment, deposits may shift to short - term. The bank's deposit loss pressure is not obvious, but there is a long - term asset - liability duration matching pressure, and the bond market is expected to remain volatile [2][8][29] Summary by Directory Bank 2026 is Still a Peak for Time Deposit Maturity - In 2022 and 2023, due to credit expansion and increased government bond issuance, commercial banks significantly increased deposit absorption. 2022 and 2023 were the early stages of the decline in bank deposit listing rates, and 2 - year and 3 - year time deposits were popular. So 2025 and 2026 are the concentrated maturity stages. The annual increments of time deposits of six state - owned banks in 2022 and 2023 increased by 3.4 trillion yuan and 3.1 trillion yuan respectively [13] - Based on the deposit maturity structure of six state - owned banks, the total time deposit maturity scale in 2026 is expected to be about 95 trillion yuan. Banks need to address the pressure of deposit - taking scale and guide the deposit term structure to meet their asset - liability arrangements [15] Bank Deposits are "Short - term" Rather than "Lost" - China's household savings rate is relatively high globally and has been rising in recent years. As of 2025, China's household sector savings rate was 32%, 3 pct higher on average from 2020 - 2025 than from 2014 - 2019. According to IMF data, China's savings rate in 2025 was 42%, much higher than that of the US (17%), Japan (30%), and the Eurozone (25%). This means there is no basis for bank deposit loss [18] - With the maturity of time deposits and the low - interest - rate environment, bank deposits may become "short - term". In 2025, the interest rate spreads between 5 - year and 1 - year, 3 - year and 1 - year time deposits of five state - owned banks were only 35bps and 30bps respectively, which may lead to a shortening of deposit terms. The current proportion of current deposits in the Chinese banking industry is low (about 47% in corporate deposits and 31% in household deposits), while in Japan it was close to 80%. As time - deposit interest rates decline, the proportion of current deposits may bottom out and slowly rise [20] - The bank's deposit loss pressure is not obvious, and the relatively ample funds on the liability side, along with the possible under - performance of the credit "good start", have brought the bank's bond - investment motivation and a bond - market recovery. However, in the medium - and long - term, banks still face asset - liability duration matching pressure, and the lack of a clear tendency to shorten the duration of local government bond issuance adds to this pressure, so the bond market is expected to remain volatile [29]