有色商品日报-20260205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices rose and then fell, with the import loss of domestic refined copper spot narrowing. - US economic data shows mixed signals: the January ISM services PMI was 53.8, in line with December and the highest since October 2024, but the new orders index slowed; the January ADP new jobs were only 22,000, far below the expected 45,000, indicating weakening labor - market momentum. - Inventories across LME, Comex, and SHFE increased. - After digesting the impact of precious - metal adjustments, copper prices rebounded due to news. However, the copper market still faces weak spot fundamentals, rising inventories, and a demand vacuum around the Spring Festival. Prices may fluctuate around the Spring Festival, so caution is advised when chasing highs. But the rigid constraints on the copper - mine end and the certainty of long - term demand mean that any significant decline will attract long - term allocation funds and industrial buyers, laying a solid foundation for the medium - to - long - term rise of copper prices [1]. Aluminum - Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. - Recently, alumina maintenance in various regions has increased, and supply disruptions have led to a narrow - range recovery. As the downstream stocking nears the end and logistics stagnates, alumina inventories are gradually accumulating and will decline as market sentiment fades. - The domestic proportion of aluminum water has decreased. High prices and repeated environmental protection controls in the Central Plains have led downstream to generally reduce or cancel pre - holiday stocking. Attention should be paid to the development of the US - Iran situation and whether downstream stocking sentiment improves after the price correction [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both declined. LME inventory increased, while SHFE warehouse receipts decreased, and the premium remained negative. - In terms of fundamentals, the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron have strengthened, possibly due to concerns about supply shortages, and the marginal cost support has continued to rise. - Affected by the Spring Festival in February, stainless - steel weekly inventories have increased, but there is much maintenance on the supply side. In the new - energy sector, the MHP price is firm, providing strong cost support for nickel sulfate, but spot procurement and sales are relatively sluggish, and the output of ternary materials is also expected to decline. - Overall, although short - term demand has weakened, cost support remains strong, and the market sentiment has improved. With many disturbances from Indonesian news, attention should be paid to the opportunity of lightly testing long positions near the cost line [2]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Market prices: The price of flat - copper increased by 3,075 yuan/ton, the price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong rose by 1,000 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference in Guangdong increased by 2,620 yuan/ton. - Inventory: LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 751 tons, and the total SHFE inventory increased by 7,067 tons on a weekly basis, and the social inventory remained unchanged. - Other indicators: The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 9.3 US dollars/ton, and the active - contract import profit and loss changed from a loss of 2,952.1 yuan/ton to a profit of 337.9 yuan/ton [3]. Lead - Market prices: The average price of 1 lead remained unchanged, and the price of some recycled lead products decreased. - Inventory: LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 174 tons, and the weekly inventory increased by 1,233 tons. - Premium: The 3 - cash premium decreased, and the active - contract import profit decreased [3]. Aluminum - Market prices: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai increased, the spot premium increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price of some aluminum - related products remained unchanged or increased slightly. - Inventory: LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 423 tons, the total SHFE inventory increased by 19,718 tons on a weekly basis, the electrolytic - aluminum social inventory increased by 34,000 tons, and the alumina social inventory increased by 10,000 tons. - Premium: The 3 - cash premium decreased, and the active - contract import loss decreased [4]. Nickel - Market prices: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 2,550 yuan/ton, and the prices of some nickel - related products remained unchanged or decreased slightly. - Inventory: LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 108 tons, the weekly SHFE nickel inventory increased by 4,602 tons, the stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons, and the nickel social inventory increased by 2,784 tons. - Premium: The 3 - cash premium decreased, and the active - contract import loss decreased [4]. Zinc - Market prices: The main - contract settlement price decreased by 0.3%, and the prices of most zinc - related products decreased. - Inventory: The weekly SHFE inventory increased by 793 tons, LME inventory remained unchanged, and the weekly social inventory increased by 3,800 tons. - Other indicators: The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 1.75 US dollars/ton, and the active - contract import loss changed from a loss of 2,859 yuan/ton to break - even [6]. Tin - Market prices: The main - contract settlement price increased by 5.2%, the SMM spot price increased by 13,150 yuan/ton, and the prices of tin concentrates decreased significantly. - Inventory: The weekly SHFE inventory increased by 748 tons, and LME inventory remained unchanged. - Other indicators: The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 58.96 US dollars/ton, and the active - contract import loss changed from a loss of 33,775 yuan/ton to break - even [6]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [8][9][10][12]. - SHFE Near - Far - Month Spread: Charts display the historical trends of the spread between the first and second contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2021 - 2026 [14][17][18][19]. - LME Inventory: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [20][22][24][25]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [26][28][30][31]. - Social Inventory: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [32][34][36][37]. - Smelting Profit: Charts show the historical trends of copper - concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum - smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc - smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2026 [39][41][43][44]. 3.3 Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metal researcher, and a gold intermediate investment analyst. He has over a decade of commodity - research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles. His team has won the Best Metal Industry Futures Research Team Award from Futures Daily & Securities Times for four consecutive sessions [46]. - Wang Heng: A finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute focusing on aluminum and silicon. He has won relevant industry awards and provides in - depth research on the new - energy industry chain and hedging accounting [46]. - Zhu Xi: A science master from the University of Warwick, UK, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute concentrating on lithium and nickel. She focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, serves many leading new - energy enterprises, and has written many in - depth reports [47].