双焦周报2026、02、04：市场有故事但驱动仍偏弱-20260205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The core view of coking coal is that it will fluctuate. The spot market transactions are fair, and the mine - end quotes are relatively stable. The supply is expected to shrink before the Spring Festival, and the demand side maintains on - demand procurement. The supply pressure is still high, and it may maintain range - bound fluctuations [4]. - The core view of coke is also that it will fluctuate. The first - round price increase of coke has been implemented. The supply side has stable production, and the demand side has limited driving force. Before the Spring Festival, it mainly follows the weakening of raw coal [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal Spot Market - The spot market transactions are fair, with an increasing online auction non - sale rate. Mines are mainly transporting pre - sold orders. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Anze, Shanxi remains at a high of 1,640 yuan/ton, and that of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jinzhong is 1,400 yuan/ton, both unchanged week - on - week [10]. - The actual transactions of Mongolian coal are light, with downstream buyers mainly bargaining for lower prices and having a low acceptance of high prices. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal is stable at 1,030 - 1,040 yuan/ton [13]. - The import profit of Australian coking coal remains inverted [15]. Spread - The calculated warehouse - receipt price of Mongolian coal is about 1,170 yuan/ton, and that of medium - sulfur coal in Shanxi is about 1,300 yuan/ton. The futures price has risen to a premium range [34]. Supply - The coal mine capacity utilization rate has rebounded to 87.3%, a week - on - week increase of 1%. As the Spring Festival approaches, coal mines mainly focus on safe and stable production and will gradually arrange holidays [47]. - The weekly average daily customs clearance of Ganqimaodu Port last week was 1,329 vehicles. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal was briefly disturbed this week but has now returned to a high level [4]. Inventory - Upstream mines have few new orders, and downstream buyers maintain on - demand procurement, with relatively sufficient inventory [4]. Coke Spot Market - The first - round price increase of coke has been implemented. The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port is 1,470 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Shanxi is about 1,520 - 1,535 yuan/ton [88]. - The wet - quenched warehouse - receipt price of coke at the port is 1,600 yuan/ton, and the quasi - first - grade dry - quenched warehouse - receipt price is 1,720 yuan/ton [88]. Spread - Recently, the futures price has rebounded and is at a premium to the dry - quenched warehouse - receipt price. The 5 - 9 month spread fluctuates [93]. Supply - After the price increase, coke enterprises have good profits and stable production [6]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills is 228 tons, basically unchanged week - on - week. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 79%, a slight week - on - week increase. Steel mills have poor profits, and the demand driving force is not strong [6][97]. Profit - After the first - round price increase, the profit of coke enterprises has improved, and the current estimated overall profit of coking is about 60 yuan/ton [6]. Inventory - Coke enterprises have smooth shipments, and steel mills have low pig iron output and general procurement enthusiasm for raw materials [6]. Balance Sheet Coking Coal - The production, import, consumption, surplus, and inventory of coking coal from June 2025 to June 2026 are presented in the balance sheet, along with year - on - year changes in production and consumption [131]. Coke - The production, import, export, consumption, surplus, and inventory of coke from June 2025 to June 2026 are presented in the balance sheet, along with year - on - year changes in production and consumption [133].