镍、不锈钢：拐拐拐拐

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel price mainly follows the guidance of macro - sentiment this week. The precious metals and non - ferrous sectors led the market to a significant correction. Attention should be paid to capital trends and market stabilization signals. The supply side is affected by the rainy season in the main producing areas of the Philippines and Indonesia, with nickel ore shipments continuously blocked and strong support for ore prices. However, the fundamentals of nickel remain weak, the inventory accumulation trend has not turned, and the short - term market may be difficult to show a trending market [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Nickel Market Overview - Price Movement: The Shanghai nickel main contract opened at 149,880 yuan/ton and closed at 140,000 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 5.41%. The spot price of electrolytic nickel decreased by 13,600 yuan/ton to 140,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8.84%. The LME nickel price decreased by 1,545 dollars/ton to 17,045 dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8.31% [9][15][20]. - Supply and Demand: The total supply of nickel in China in January 2026 was 21.4 million tons, and the total demand was 19.2 million tons, with a supply - demand balance of 2.2 million tons. The production of electrolytic nickel in China in January 2026 increased by 0.63 million tons to 3.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.06% and a year - on - year increase of 25.54%. The pure nickel social inventory increased by 4,349 tons to 70,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.56% [4][44][49]. 3.2 Nickel Ore - Price: As of February 2, the CIF prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore with 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel content were 30, 59.5, and 78.5 dollars/wet ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of +0, +0.5, and +0. The ex - factory prices of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore with Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% remained flat at 21.5 and 55 dollars/wet ton respectively as of January 30 [31]. - Inventory: As of January 30, the nickel ore port inventory decreased by 300,000 tons to 7.06 million wet tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.08%. In December 2025, the national nickel ore import volume was 1.9928 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 40.32% and a year - on - year increase of 31.13% [34]. 3.3 Intermediate Products - Price: As of February 2, the FOB price of MHP increased by 77 dollars/ton to 16,104 dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.48%, and the FOB price of high - grade nickel matte increased by 264 dollars/ton to 16,632 dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.61% [40]. - Production and Import: In January 2026, the production of Indonesian MHP remained flat at 39,000 tons of nickel, and the production of high - grade nickel matte decreased by 800 tons to 33,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.31%. In December 2025, the monthly import volume of MHP was 163,300 tons of metal, a month - on - month decrease of 8.51% and a year - on - year increase of 24.36%, and the monthly import volume of high - grade nickel matte was 39,900 tons of metal, a month - on - month increase of 1.0% and a year - on - year increase of 91.88% [40]. 3.4 Refined Nickel - Production: In January 2026, the monthly production of Chinese electrolytic nickel increased by 0.63 million tons to 3.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.06% and a year - on - year increase of 25.54% [44]. - Inventory: As of February 2, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 4,057 tons to 46,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.54%, and the LME nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 24 tons to 285,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01%. The pure nickel social inventory increased by 4,349 tons to 70,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.56% [49]. 3.5 Nickel Sulfate - Production: In December 2025, the monthly production of Chinese nickel sulfate decreased by 1,640 tons to 29,200 tons of nickel, a month - on - month decrease of 4.47% [3]. - Cost and Profit: Affected by market sentiment and weak fundamentals, the nickel price dropped rapidly, and the immediate production cost of nickel sulfate decreased. As of February 2, the profit margins of producing nickel sulfate from MHP, nickel beans, high - grade nickel matte, and yellow slag increased by 4.9, 7.8, 4.2, and 6.4 percentage points respectively to 2.6%, 0.8%, 6.3%, and 0.2% [65]. 3.6 Ferronickel - Production: In January 2026, the national ferronickel production (in metal quantity) increased by 200 tons to 23,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.47%, and the Indonesian ferronickel production decreased by 9,200 tons to 132,100 tons of nickel, a month - on - month decrease of 6.51% [69]. - Price: As of February 2, the average price of 8 - 12% high - grade ferronickel decreased by 10 yuan/nickel point to 1,040 yuan/nickel point, a week - on - week decrease of 0.95% [27]. 3.7 Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless steel main contract opened at 14,715 yuan/ton and closed at 14,140 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 3.97%. The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge in Wuxi decreased by 250 yuan/ton to 14,300 yuan/ton as of February 2 [74]. - Production and Inventory: In January 2026, the Chinese stainless steel crude steel production increased by 165,500 tons to 3.426 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.08% and a year - on - year increase of 24.83%. It is expected that the production in February 2026 will be 2.651 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.49%. As of January 30, the stainless steel social inventory increased by 31,100 tons to 952,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.37% [77][80]. - Cost: As of February 3, the production cost of Chinese 304 cold - rolled stainless steel decreased by 238 yuan/ton to 13,771 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.70% [84].