Morgan Stanley·2026-02-04 02:00Investment Rating - The report maintains an "In-Line" investment rating for the China Autos & Shared Mobility industry [4]. Core Insights - The report indicates a "wait and see" strategy among automakers as they navigate a challenging market environment, with many companies preparing for significant product launches post-Chinese New Year (CNY) while monitoring demand trends closely [54]. - Weekly order trends from January 26 to February 1 show a decline in demand for major electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers, with notable decreases in order volumes compared to previous weeks [2][3]. - The anticipated pre-CNY buying rush is expected to be less impactful this year, as original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) adopt a cautious approach until demand shows signs of recovery [54]. - Approximately 25 localities began accepting applications for trade-in subsidies in January, but the effectiveness of these subsidies is expected to be clearer only after the CNY break [54]. Summary by Relevant Sections Order Trends - BYD: 41-42k orders (down 8% week-over-week, down 41% month-over-month) [2] - NIO: 3.9-4.1k orders (down 5% week-over-week, down 49% month-over-month) [2] - XPeng: 7.5-7.7k orders (down 9% week-over-week, down 15% month-over-month) [2] - Tesla China: 9.5-9.7k orders (down 3% week-over-week, down 4% month-over-month) [2] - Aito: 5.2-5.4k orders (down 7% week-over-week, down 32% month-over-month) [3] - Geely Galaxy: 15-15.2k orders (down 6% week-over-week, down 32% month-over-month) [3] Market Environment - The report highlights that despite some seasonal promotions, the overall market remains tough, leading to a cautious outlook from manufacturers [54]. - The report suggests that the industry is in a transitional phase, with companies waiting for clearer signals of demand recovery before making significant moves [54].