Kazatomprom 2025Q4 铀产量（100%基础）环比增加 10%至 7,130 吨 U3O8，2026 年计划产量仍为 27500 - 29000 吨（100%基础）

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Insights - In Q4 2025, Kazatomprom's uranium production increased by 10% quarter-on-quarter to 7,130 tons U3O8, and by 9% year-on-year [1] - The company's uranium sales volume for Q4 2025 was 5,719 tons U3O8, reflecting an 11% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 14% increase year-on-year [1] - The average realized price for the group in Q4 2025 was $68.85 per pound, which is nearly flat quarter-on-quarter but down 8% year-on-year [1] - The average spot price at the end of Q4 2025 was $79.12 per pound, up 4% quarter-on-quarter and 3% year-on-year [2] Production Guidance for 2026 - Kazatomprom's nominal production for 2026 has been revised down from 32,777 tons to 29,697 tons, a reduction of approximately 3,000 tons or 10% [3] - The expected production range for 2026 is between 27,500 and 29,000 tons U3O8 [3] - The company's attributable production for 2026 is projected to be between 14,500 and 15,500 tons U3O8 [3] - Group sales volume for 2026 is expected to be between 19,500 and 20,500 tons U3O8, including KAP's sales volume of 13,100 to 14,100 tons U3O8 [3][8] Production Growth Drivers - The year-on-year production growth is primarily attributed to capacity enhancements at the joint venture Budenovskoye mine, with 100% of its production pre-booked under previously disclosed contracts from 2024 to 2026 [4]