固收视角看配置系列一：2月大类资产怎么看？

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recommended core allocation order for February is A-shares > US stocks > copper > gold > US Treasuries [1][10] - In 2026, the core macro - narrative may revolve around the "Big MAC" trade, with the Trump administration's actions likely aimed at winning the mid - term elections [16] - The victory - centered macro - narrative framework constructed by the Trump administration may face a major test in the mid - term elections, and the global macro - environment may experience significant fluctuations in 2026, with long - term trends such as risk - aversion and de - dollarization continuing [5][44] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Monthly Macro Trading Main Lines Monthly Main Line 1: Geopolitical risks may rise - The US's cross - border arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro may be the fuse for rising geopolitical risks in 2026, and it may strengthen the Trump administration's motivation for external military intervention [17] - Geopolitical events may be used by Trump to boost his support rate. If the election situation is unfavorable, the Trump administration may provoke geopolitical conflicts to transfer internal contradictions and boost support [18][20] - Geopolitical risks may remain high, strengthening investors' risk - aversion demand. The tense situation between the US and Iran and the US's actions around Greenland may lead to market concerns and drive up the prices of oil and gold [21] Monthly Main Line 2: The game over the Fed's independence may cause continuous disturbances - The Trump administration's frictions with the Fed have intensified. The administration may be trying to intervene in the Fed's independence to achieve the resonance of fiscal, monetary, and credit cycles to support the mid - term elections [22][26] - The core obstacle lies in the monetary policy. The Fed's decision to pause rate cuts in January 2026 conflicts with the Trump administration's desire for rapid and significant rate cuts. Also, the rising US Treasury yields during the rate - cut cycle make the Fed more cautious [30][32] - Even if Kevin Warsh takes over as the Fed chairman, disturbances around the Fed's independence and subsequent monetary policy paths will likely continue. Warsh's "balance - sheet reduction rate - cut" idea conflicts with the Trump administration's policies, and he may face challenges in maintaining the Fed's independence while meeting the Trump administration's demands. Additionally, internal differences within the Fed and the limited potential for rate cuts may also affect the Fed's policy decisions [34][35][39] Annual Main Line: The victory narrative faces the mid - term election test - The Trump administration's victory - centered narrative framework may face a test in the mid - term elections. To boost support, the administration may adopt a more aggressive approach, and the global macro - environment may fluctuate significantly in 2026, with risk - aversion and de - dollarization trends continuing [44] 2. Monthly Asset Performance Review - In January, risk assets performed well, while the global bond market was mediocre. Precious metals like gold and silver continued their strong performance, with gold and silver rising by 13% and 43% respectively. Crude oil rebounded, and the Asian stock market outperformed the US and European markets, with the South Korean stock market being the most outstanding. A - shares showed structural differentiation, and the US dollar depreciated while the Japanese yen appreciated significantly [47][49] - Gold: In January, gold prices rose due to geopolitical conflicts but dropped 9% on the last trading day due to the Fed's decision to pause rate cuts and Trump's nomination of a hawkish Fed chairman. In the long term, the core drivers for gold price increases remain, but in the short term, there is technical adjustment pressure [7][52] - Silver: In January, silver prices first soared and then plunged. The sharp rise was mainly due to its high - volatility and speculative nature and the overall boost of the precious - metal sector by geopolitical risks. The long - term outlook is positive due to its financial and industrial attributes, but in the short term, it may continue to fluctuate widely [8][60][71] - Copper: In January, LME copper prices fluctuated at a high level, rising 4.6% for the month. After the adjustment stabilizes, copper may become a new potential target for speculation in the commodity market. The current high gold - copper ratio and the increasing demand from emerging industries are favorable factors [9][73][74] 3. Monthly Asset Allocation Suggestions - Based on the risk - parity model and subjective logic judgment, the recommended core allocation order for February is A - shares > US stocks > copper > gold > US Treasuries [10] - Equity: A - shares are highly recommended, especially small - cap stocks in February. US stocks are moderately recommended, with long - term positive trends. Japanese stocks are also moderately recommended, while Hong Kong stocks are moderately under - recommended [81][82] - Bonds: Chinese bonds are moderately under - recommended in general, while credit bonds and convertible bonds are moderately recommended. US Treasuries are highly recommended, with short - term bonds having more downward yield potential [82] - Commodities: Gold and copper are highly recommended. Gold is supported in the long term but faces short - term adjustment pressure. Copper has long - term demand support but may have higher short - term volatility [82] - Foreign Exchange: The US dollar index and the RMB are moderately recommended. The US dollar index may rebound in the short term but may decline again in the long term. The RMB has a positive outlook, but the appreciation space may be limited in the early stage of economic recovery [83]