印尼资源民族主义升级，存量博弈重塑定价锚点

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [2]. Core Insights - Indonesia's resource nationalism is intensifying, with the government tightening mining policies to increase fiscal revenue amid significant budget deficits. This includes controlling RKAB supply, adjusting HPM pricing formulas, and conducting antitrust investigations to establish a global pricing system based on Indonesian mineral costs [4][10]. - The depletion of high-grade nickel resources is prompting a policy shift towards protecting reserves. The government has stopped approving new RKEF projects and is expected to favor low-grade nickel resources, aligning with the needs of the new energy industry [4][10]. - A significant reduction in RKAB quotas is anticipated for 2026, with estimates suggesting a drop to 250-260 million tons from 379 million tons in 2025, potentially leading to a supply gap of 40-50 million wet tons [4][10]. - The HPM pricing formula may be revised, which could increase costs for wet processing projects significantly, thereby raising the global marginal cost line for nickel products [4][10]. - The report suggests monitoring the implementation of Indonesian policies and recommends focusing on companies such as Huayou Cobalt, Liqin Resources, and Zhongwei New Materials [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Progression of Resource Nationalism - The Indonesian government is tightening RKAB quotas, signaling a reduction to 250-260 million tons for 2026, a 34% decrease from 2025 [10]. - The government is enhancing scrutiny of monopolistic risks in the Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP) and may adjust the HPM pricing formula to include by-products like cobalt [10][10]. 2. Supply-Side Changes - The report highlights the shift in focus from high-grade nickel to low-grade nickel due to the depletion of high-grade resources, with a projected supply gap in 2026 [4][10]. - The anticipated changes in RKAB quotas and HPM pricing are expected to create a structural shift in the industry, impacting supply and pricing dynamics [4][10]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report advises investors to keep an eye on the specific implementation of Indonesian policies and suggests companies that may benefit from these changes [4].