A股市场2026年2月投资策略报告：市场处于震荡整固阶段，结构性行情将是重点-20260205

Macro Economic Situation - Export continued to improve with a year-on-year growth of 6.6% in December 2025, driven by structural optimization and competitive advantages of high-tech products [8] - Fixed asset investment in 2025 decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment down by 2.2% and real estate investment down by 17.2% [10][12] - Manufacturing investment showed a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year, but was affected by policy adjustments and demand fluctuations [11][12] Liquidity Environment - The Federal Reserve maintained the policy interest rate between 3.50% and 3.75% in January 2026, with expectations of potential rate cuts later in the year [24] - The People's Bank of China released trillions of yuan through reverse repos and MLF to address seasonal funding needs, maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy [23][27] Capital Market Liquidity Environment - ETFs experienced significant outflows in January 2026, indicating a shift towards stabilizing the market and reducing overheating risks [33][46] - Changes in financing rules have led to a more stable growth in financing, with the minimum margin requirement for margin trading increased from 80% to 100% [34] - The pace of stock supply has accelerated due to policies promoting direct financing, with increased IPO and refinancing activities [42][46] Market Strategy - The market is currently in a consolidation phase, with limited potential for significant upward movement due to high valuation levels and resistance from previous counter-cyclical adjustments [57] - The focus should shift towards structural opportunities as the market navigates through a vacuum of economic data and performance [57] Industry Allocation - In February 2026, attention should be given to relatively low-positioned consumer and cyclical sectors during the pre-holiday industry style convergence [61] - Opportunities in the AI sector are expected to grow due to ongoing capital investments and domestic demand for computing power [61] - The power equipment industry is anticipated to benefit from overseas photovoltaic expansion plans and significant investments from the State Grid [61]