瑞达期货沪镍产业日报-20260205

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai nickel will fluctuate and adjust in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the 130,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton range [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel was 134,430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,250 yuan; the price difference between the 03 - 04 contracts of Shanghai nickel was - 300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; LME 3 - month nickel was 17,330 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 65 US dollars; the position volume of the main contract of Shanghai nickel was 93,478 lots, a decrease of 5,975 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel was - 42,420 lots, an increase of 2,105 lots; LME nickel inventory was 286,314 tons, an increase of 786 tons; the inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 55,396 tons, an increase of 4,602 tons; the LME nickel cancelled warrants totaled 11,148 tons, unchanged; the warrant quantity of Shanghai nickel was 50,464 tons, an increase of 2,392 tons [3] 2. Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price was 139,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,750 yuan; the spot average price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River was 139,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,950 yuan; the CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel was 210 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warrant) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel was 210 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate was 33,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract was 5,420 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,500 yuan; the LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium was - 222 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.08 US dollars [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore was 199.28 million tons, a decrease of 134.67 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore was 1,172.34 million tons, a decrease of 56.28 million tons; the average monthly import unit price of nickel ore was 75.53 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3.36 US dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni was 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3] 4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel was 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel was 21,400 metal tons, a decrease of 700 metal tons [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 23,861.23 tons, an increase of 11,020.74 tons; the monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel was 174.72 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 99.61 million tons, an increase of 10.07 million tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel was 54.9 million tons, an increase of 0.97 million tons [3] 6. Industry News - The People's Bank of China focuses on supporting key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium - sized enterprises; the US ADP employment data in January was significantly lower than expected, with only 22,000 new jobs added, highlighting the weakening momentum of the labor market at the beginning of the year; the US ISM services PMI index in January was 53.8, remaining at the highest level since October 2024, better than expected [3] 7. Viewpoint Summary - In the macro - aspect, the People's Bank of China focuses on supporting key areas. In the fundamental aspect, the Philippines has entered the rainy season, and the import volume of nickel ore is in a downward trend; Indonesia plans to significantly cut the RKAB quota to 250 - 260 million tons next year, but the quota for the first quarter will be postponed, and the raw material contraction is expected to be transmitted in the second quarter. In the smelting end, the production of Indonesian ferronickel remains high, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase; domestic refined nickel production capacity is large, and with the recent rise in nickel prices, there is a profit space for production, and the output of refined nickel is expected to rise again. In the demand end, the profit of stainless steel plants has improved, and the production volume is expected to be high; the production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to climb, and ternary batteries contribute a small incremental demand. Domestic nickel inventory is growing faster, the market mainly buys on dips, and the spot premium has declined; overseas LME inventory continues to increase, and the spot premium has been lowered. Technically, the position is stable and the price is adjusted, and the market sentiment is recovering [3] 8. Key Concerns - There is no news today [3]