玉米淀粉日报-20260205

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - US corn supply pressure eases, expected to oscillate strongly at the bottom. North China corn supply increases, with stable spot prices, while Northeast corn prices decline. The spot price is still weak in the short - term, but the purchase price at the northern port is strong today. North China wheat prices are strong, and the price difference between Northeast and North China corn widens. The market is trading on the increased pre - Chinese New Year grain sales in North China, and there is still selling pressure on Northeast corn later. Corn spot prices still have room to fall, and the 03 corn contract will also decline, but the decline of the 07 corn contract is limited [4][7][9]. - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants increases, and Shandong corn spot prices are stable. Northeast starch spot prices are stable. Corn starch inventory has decreased this week. Starch prices mainly depend on corn prices and downstream stocking. By - product prices are weakening but are still higher than last year. The spot price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. North China corn is stable in the short - term, and Northeast corn is stable. Due to the end of pre - Chinese New Year stocking, corporate losses are expanding. The 03 starch contract oscillates narrowly following corn, and the spot price of starch stabilizes in the short - term. It is expected that the 03 starch contract will oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - Futures Disk: For corn futures contracts (C2601, C2605, C2509) and corn starch futures contracts (CS2601, CS2605, CS2509), the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, trading volume change percentages, open interests, and open interest change percentages are provided. For example, C2605 closed at 2273, up 2 with a 0.09% increase, trading volume of 272,543 with a 27.13% increase, and open interest of 829,931 with a 3.85% increase [2]. - Spot and Basis: Corn spot prices are provided for different regions (Qinggang, Songyuan Jiji, Zhucheng Xingmao, etc.), and starch spot prices are provided for different manufacturers (Longfeng, COFCO, etc.). The basis for both corn and starch is also given. For example, the corn price in Qinggang is 2135, with a basis of - 162 [2]. - Price Difference: Corn inter - period spreads (such as C01 - C05, C05 - C09), starch inter - period spreads (such as CS01 - CS05, CS05 - CS09), and cross - variety spreads (such as CS09 - C09, CS01 - C01) are presented, along with their price changes [2]. 3.2 Market Judgment - Corn: US corn rebounds from the bottom but still oscillates at the bottom. The profit of imported foreign corn increases. The closing price at the northern port is strong, while Northeast corn spot prices continue to decline. North China corn supply increases, and the price is stable. The price difference between North China and Northeast corn widens. Wheat and corn are being auctioned, and wheat prices are strong. The feed demand is stable, and downstream inventory increases. The 03 contract oscillates narrowly, and the spot basis strengthens. The market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn before the Chinese New Year and downstream inventory building [4][7]. - Starch: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants increases, and Shandong corn prices are stable. Northeast starch prices are stable. Corn starch inventory decreases. Starch prices depend on corn prices and downstream stocking. By - product prices are weakening but are still higher than last year. The 03 starch contract oscillates narrowly following corn, and the spot price stabilizes in the short - term [8]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The 03 US corn has support at 420 cents per bushel. Go long on the 07 and 05 corn contracts on dips [10]. - Arbitrage: Reverse arbitrage on the 3 - 7 corn contracts, and widen the spread between the 05 corn and starch contracts on dips [10]. 3.4 Corn Options - Option Strategy: Use the short - term cumulative put option strategy and operate in a rolling manner [11]. 3.5 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the northern port corn closing price, corn 05 contract basis, corn 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 05 contract basis, and corn starch 05 contract spread [15][16][21].