棉花、棉纱日报-20260205

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton fundamentals remain strong, with an upward trend in the long - term. It is recommended to build long positions on dips [5]. - In the short - term, the US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are likely to trade in a range. For trading strategies, it is advisable to build long positions on dips for the single - side, and to remain on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Market Information - Futures Market: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 70 points; CY05 decreased by 150 points, and CY09 decreased by 70 points. The trading volume of most contracts increased, and the open interest of some contracts changed. For example, the trading volume of CF05 increased by 118,425, and its open interest decreased by 4,804 [2]. - Spot Market: The CCIndex3128B price increased by 25 yuan/ton, while the FCY IndexC33S price decreased by 349. Other spot prices such as Cot A, Indian S - 6, etc., had different changes [2]. - Spreads: In cotton and棉纱, there were various spreads. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was 530 with no change, and the CY05 - CF05 spread was 5,835, down 80 [2]. 3.2 Market News and Views 3.2.1 Cotton Market News - As of January 31, 2026, Pakistan's 2025/26 new cotton market volume reached 859,000 tons, a 0.6% year - on - year increase. Textile mills' purchases were 773,000 tons, up 0.2% year - on - year, and unsold new cotton was 54,000 tons, a 25% year - on - year decrease [4]. - As of January 31, 1,099 cotton processing enterprises in China conducted notarized inspections, with a total inspection weight of 7.262 million tons. Among them, 1,018 enterprises in Xinjiang inspected 7.166 million tons, and 81 enterprises in the inland inspected 95,000 tons [4]. - As of January 31, Brazil's 2025/26 cotton planting was 78.6% complete, a 18 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, 22.5 percentage points faster than the same period last year, and 3.3 percentage points faster than the average of the past three years [4]. 3.2.2 Trading Logic - There are reports that Xinjiang's cotton planting area in 2026 is expected to decrease by 266,000 mu to 3.621 million mu, a 7% reduction. However, several large textile projects are expected to be launched in Xinjiang, which will benefit cotton consumption [5]. 3.2.3 Trading Strategies - Single - side: The US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are likely to trade in a range in the short - term. Consider building long positions on dips [6]. - Arbitrage: Remain on the sidelines [6]. - Options: Remain on the sidelines [6]. 3.2.4 Cotton Yarn Industry News - Last night, Zhengzhou cotton traded sideways. As logistics began to take holidays, the trading in the pure cotton yarn market weakened. Spinning mills focused on order fulfillment and inventory preparation, and the overall inventory decreased. The operating rate of inland spinning mills continued to decline, while that in Xinjiang remained high. The price of pure cotton yarn was stable, with some manufacturers testing price increases. Most inland spinning mills will finish their holidays around the 25th of the twelfth lunar month, and only a small number of Xinjiang spinning mills will take the Spring Festival holiday [7]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, cotton fabric mills reported a decrease in new orders. It is expected that the number of mills taking holidays will increase significantly this weekend. The finished - product inventory of cotton fabric mills remains high, and the price of cotton fabric is expected to remain stable in the short - term [7]. 3.3 Options - The 60 - day HV of cotton was 9.2812 yesterday, with a slight increase in volatility. The implied volatility of CF605 - C - 14600 was 13.3%, CF605 - C - 14200 was 11.3%, and CF605 - P - 13800 was 11.2% [9]. - Yesterday, the PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.8667, and the PCR of trading volume was 0.4688. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today [10]. - Option trading strategy: Remain on the sidelines [11].