2025年各地成绩单：经济、财政与债务盘点

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the economic, fiscal, and debt situations of different regions in 2025, revealing significant regional disparities and the influence of debt on economic growth, investment, and other aspects. It also points out that the credit risk of the overall market is continuously alleviating, and the credit spread may remain low [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Regional Economic Situation 3.1.1. Production Aspect - In 2025, Guangdong and Jiangsu led the country in GDP, with 145,800 billion yuan and 142,351.5 billion yuan respectively. The average GDP growth rate of non - key debt - reduction regions was 5.23%, better than the 4.75% of the key regions. Tibet had the highest GDP growth rate at 7.00%, while Guangdong's was 3.9% [9] - The added value of above - scale industries in all 31 regions increased year - on - year. The average growth rate of non - key debt - reduction regions was 7.22%, higher than the 5.93% of the key regions. Tibet led with a 12.4% growth rate [10] 3.1.2. Demand Aspect - Consumption performance varied across regions. Beijing's social retail sales decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, while some central and western regions such as Shaanxi (6.0%), Henan (5.6%), and Hebei (5.6%) had high growth rates. The average social retail sales growth rate of key debt - reduction regions was 2.49%, lower than the 4.03% of non - key regions [15] - In foreign trade, 21 out of 31 regions had positive year - on - year growth in RMB - denominated import and export amounts. Xinjiang led with a 19.9% growth rate, while some regions like Tibet (-33.1%) and Shanxi (-21.2%) had significant declines [16] - Fixed - asset investment showed a negative year - on - year growth, with significant regional differences. The average growth rate of key debt - reduction regions was - 4.97%, lower than the - 2.38% of non - key regions. Tibet had the highest growth rate at 17.2% [20] 3.1.3. Income Aspect - In terms of industrial enterprise profits, 20 out of 31 regions had positive year - on - year growth. The average profit growth rate of non - key debt - reduction regions was 3.95%, higher than the 2.8% of key regions. Liaoning led with a 54.1% growth rate [22][23] - The per - capita disposable income of urban residents in all regions continued to grow steadily. The average growth rate of key debt - reduction regions was 4.99%, slightly lower than the 5.07% of non - key regions. Tibet had the highest growth rate at 7.15% [26] 3.2. Regional Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - As of December 31, 2025, 28 regions disclosed fiscal data for the first 11 months of 2025. The general budget revenue growth rate of key debt - reduction regions was significantly higher, and the expenditure growth rate was lower than that of non - key regions. Jilin had the highest revenue growth rate at about 11.7%, and Xinjiang had the highest expenditure growth rate at 5.5% [29] - All 28 regions had fiscal deficits in the first 11 months of 2025. The average fiscal deficit of key debt - reduction regions was about - 270.5 billion yuan, smaller than the - 294.5 billion yuan of non - key regions [30] - The land market remained under pressure in 2025. Thirteen regions had year - on - year growth in transaction volume, and 10 regions had growth in transaction area [33] 3.3. Regional Financing Situation - In 2025, urban investment bond financing contracted overall, with significant regional differences. Only 6 out of 31 regions had positive net financing. Guangdong, Shanghai, and Gansu ranked in the top three with net financing of 16.55 billion yuan, 8.21 billion yuan, and 1.91 billion yuan respectively. Jiangsu, Hunan, and Zhejiang ranked in the bottom three with net financing of - 159.23 billion yuan, - 71.39 billion yuan, and - 63.89 billion yuan respectively [5][37]