银河期货鸡蛋日报-20260205

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - As the Spring Festival approaches, the Spring Festival stockpiling is almost over. The good profit situation has reduced the market's enthusiasm for culling, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering that the egg consumption will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival, although the inventory has eased, the overall reduction has weakened recently due to the good egg price performance. It is advisable to consider short - selling the June contract on rallies [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures Prices: JD01 closed at 3756, up 69 from the previous close; JD05 closed at 3385, down 20; JD09 closed at 3863, down 9 [2]. - Inter - month Spreads: The 01 - 05 spread was 371, up 89; the 05 - 09 spread was - 478, down 11; the 09 - 01 spread was 107, down 78 [2]. - Ratio of Egg to Feed: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.66, up 0.03; the 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.49, down 0.01; the 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.68, unchanged. The 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.28, up 0.01; the 05 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.24, down 0.01; the 09 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.35, down 0.01 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Egg Prices: The average price in the main producing areas was 3.46 yuan/jin, down 0.09 yuan/jin from the previous trading day. The average price in the main selling areas was 3.62 yuan/jin, down 0.12 yuan/jin. Egg prices in different regions showed a mixed trend of decline and stability [2][4]. - Culled Chicken Prices: The average price of culled chickens in the main producing areas was 4.38 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous trading day [2][7]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - The average price of culled chickens was 4.38 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin; the average price of chicks was 3.21 yuan/feather, up 0.04 yuan; the price of laying hen vaccines was 3 yuan, unchanged. The profit per feather was 18.89 yuan, down 3.62 yuan. The average price of corn was 2372 yuan, down 1 yuan; the average price of bean meal was 3178 yuan, unchanged; the price of laying hen compound feed was 2.61 yuan, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - Egg Prices: The average price in the main producing areas was 3.46 yuan/jin, down 0.09 yuan/jin, and in the main selling areas was 3.62 yuan/jin, down 0.12 yuan/jin. The national mainstream prices showed a mixed trend of decline and stability [4]. - Laying Hen Inventory: In December, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, a year - on - year increase of 5%, lower than expected. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises (about 50% of the country) was 39.59 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13.9% [5]. - Culled Chicken Data: In the week of January 16, the number of culled chickens in the main producing areas was 17.33 million, with little change from the previous week. The average culling age was 485 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week [5]. - Egg Sales: As of the week of January 16, the egg sales in representative selling areas were 7391 tons, a decrease of 2.6% from the previous week, at a historical low [5]. - Profit and Inventory: As of January 15, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was 0.13 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.26 yuan. On January 9, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 14.14 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.41 yuan/jin from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.97 days, slightly reduced from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.05 days, also slightly reduced [6]. 3.5 Trading Logic - As the Spring Festival approaches, the Spring Festival stockpiling is almost over. The good profit situation has reduced the market's enthusiasm for culling, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. The number of culled chickens in the main producing areas in the week of January 23 was 16.27 million, a decrease of 5% from the previous week. The average culling age was 490 days, an increase of 5 days from the previous week. Considering the off - season of egg consumption after the Spring Festival, it is advisable to consider short - selling the June contract on rallies [8]. 3.6 Trading Strategies - Single - side Trading: Consider short - selling the June contract on rallies [9]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [10].