对冲交易02：“叙事”坍缩之后，铜价仍有支撑

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight", with an expected increase of over 10% compared to the benchmark index in the next 6 - 12 months [38] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sharp rise of metals after the new year was a result of the resonance between accidental events and "grand narratives", but the market suddenly stopped in late January. The real reason for the decline was the over - crowded narratives and the reflexivity of leverage. After the "passive de - leveraging", the commodity trend continues, but investors should beware of the over - crowded "narrative" trading. It is recommended to focus on low - crowded copper and other commodities [3][4][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. "Sudden Brake" in the Commodity Bull Market - Since the beginning of the year, the overall commodity (Nanhua Commodity Composite Index) has risen by 8.6%, once reaching 11.4%. The biggest gainers were metals, with precious metals and non - ferrous metals rising up to 47.1% and 13.6% respectively. Energy - chemical and black varieties, which were bearish last year, also rose in January, with single - day gains reaching 1.6% and 3.6% respectively. However, the accelerating rally stopped abruptly at the end of January. From January 30th, the Nanhua Composite Index fell 6.7% in two trading days, while the precious metals and non - ferrous metal indexes fell 19.4% and 10% respectively. On the early morning of January 31st, spot gold and silver recorded their largest single - day drops in 40 years and in history respectively [11] 3.2. What Happened in the Extreme Metal Market after the New Year? - Long - term factors supporting the metal market have not changed. Precious metals are driven by monetization attributes, including overseas fiscal expansion, geopolitical premiums, and central bank gold purchases. Non - ferrous metals face a contradiction between technological demand and supply constraints, along with premiums from resource nationalism and strategic reserves. - The accelerating rally of precious metals after the new year was catalyzed by three factors: geopolitical events in Venezuela and Iran at the beginning of the month, the Greenland dispute between the US and Europe and the expectation of "de - dollarization" in Europe in the middle of the month, and the "US dollar credit crisis" caused by Trump's "manipulation of the US dollar" at the end of the month. - For non - ferrous metals, the strategic attributes exposed by geopolitical disputes and the optimistic sentiment in the equity market promoted their rise [13][15][16] 3.3. Should the New Fed Chairman Nominee "Take the Blame"? - The accelerating rally in the metal market stopped on January 29th. The market attributed the decline to the hawkish new Fed nominee, fearing a "Fed pivot". However, the "Wash trading" had already occurred two weeks before, and the market gave a "deep V rebound" pricing at that time. So the new nominee may just be a visible shock [17][18] 3.4. The Real Reason for the Decline is the "Reflexivity" of Leverage and Narration - Silver became the "eye of the storm" for all asset prices. There were three main risks: continuous outflows of ETF funds while silver prices hit new highs, increasing "de - leveraging" measures by regulators, and the end of the short - squeeze as indicated by the significant decline in the silver lease rate. The departure of long - position funds led to the limit - down of the domestic silver main contract on January 31st [21][22][26] 3.5. The Trend is Not Over, but Beware of the "Narrative" Crowding - The market is overly obsessed with grand narratives, and the over - crowded narratives are the main cause of the price decline. The "Fed pivot" narrative is not valid, and the "commodity rotation" narrative also needs to be re - examined. - After the "passive de - leveraging", prices return to their intrinsic values. It is recommended to focus on low - crowded copper. As of February 3rd, industrial products have generally recovered to 97% of their highest prices, with copper having the fastest recovery rate among metals. Short - term attention can be paid to strong non - ferrous varieties and Chinese commodities boosted by capital flight to safety, and real - estate chain commodities can be used for short - term trading [29][32][35]