豆类日报：豆类外强内弱油脂震荡分化-20260205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - On February 5th, the bean market showed a pattern of rising and then falling, while the oil market maintained a volatile trend. Specifically, the prices of soybean No.1, soybean No.2, and rapeseed meal were under pressure, with the price of rapeseed meal accompanied by an increase of 19,000 lots in positions. The prices of soybean meal were slightly stronger, also under pressure. The oil prices were in a volatile state, with soybean oil and palm oil prices under pressure and accompanied by a reduction of 13,000 lots in positions, and the price of rapeseed oil was relatively weak [5]. - The bean market is in a complex pattern with both bullish and bearish factors. The expectation of China's soybean purchases from the US and the implementation of the US biodiesel tax credit policy have boosted the demand for US soybean oil, supporting the price of US soybeans. However, the abundant global soybean supply is the core factor suppressing prices. The expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans and the fast harvesting progress mean a high volume of imported soybeans will arrive in the coming months. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories at ports and oil mills are nearly doubled year - on - year and at a historical high, while the downstream aquaculture industry is generally in the red and the pre - Spring Festival stocking is almost over, resulting in weak demand. In the short term, the bean market will maintain a range - bound operation [6]. - The oil market is also in a volatile pattern with both bullish and bearish factors. The core driving force lies in the game between supply expectations and policy prospects. China's increased purchase of Canadian rapeseed strengthens the expectation of a loose rapeseed oil supply, and the expected significant reduction of rapeseed import tariffs after the easing of China - Canada relations will put long - term pressure on the rapeseed oil supply. In the soybean oil market, the specific details and blending targets of the US biofuel policy are still key variables, and the demand expectation for soybean oil is still supported, showing relatively resistant short - term performance. Malaysian palm oil is in the production - reduction season, but the absolute inventory level is still high, and it will enter the production - increase cycle later. The expected decline of Malaysian palm oil inventory in the MPOB data to be released next week may provide short - term support. The domestic pre - Spring Festival stocking is coming to an end, the demand support is weakening, and the near - term inventory pressure in the oil market still exists [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics 3.1.1 Brazilian Soybean Exports - According to Safras & Mercado, the shipping plan of Brazilian ports shows that the soybean export volume in February 2026 is expected to be 11.42 million tons, higher than 2.444 million tons in January and 9.586 million tons in February last year. Based on the latest shipping plan, the estimated export volume in March 2026 is 396,000 tons. The total export volume from January to February 2026 is estimated to be 14.261 million tons, higher than 7.497 million tons in the same period of 2025 [9]. 3.1.2 Global Weather Conditions - In the US, the temperature in the plains will be higher than normal in the next two weeks, with more rainfall in the northern plains and the northwest and drier in other areas. In South America, the corn and soybean planting areas in the northern and central Pampas will be cool and rainy, and the central region of Brazil is expected to have mild weather, which may be beneficial to crop growth. In Europe, the temperature in central and western Europe will be higher than normal in the next 10 days, with moderate to heavy rain expected. In Asia, the temperature in Southeast Asia and India is expected to be close to or slightly lower than normal in the next 15 days, while the temperature in China and Japan will be higher. Most parts of Asia will be dry, except for possible short - term rainfall in Southeast Asia and eastern China. In Africa, rainfall may delay the cocoa harvest in southern West Africa [10]. 3.1.3 China - US Soybean Trade - US President Trump said that he had a "very positive" phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping on trade and security issues. Chinese leaders agreed to increase the purchase volume of US soybeans this season from 12 million tons to 20 million tons. After the news was announced, Chicago soybean futures rose sharply. However, analysts believe that China may turn to purchase cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the next few months as Brazilian soybeans are harvested and put on the market [11]. 3.1.4 Argentine Weather - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that from February 5th to 11th, 2026, the Argentine agricultural region will continue to have high temperatures with uneven rainfall. Some areas will have abundant rainfall, but large areas will be short of water. The temperature will be moderate at the beginning of the forecast period, but the tropical wind will return strongly, causing the temperature in the northern and central agricultural regions to be higher than normal, but it will not extend southward. The rainfall distribution will be extremely uneven, with abundant rainfall in the western part of the agricultural region and scarce rainfall in most other agricultural regions [12]. 3.1.5 Brazilian Paraná State Soybean Harvest - The rural economic department of Brazil's Paraná state reported that as of now, the soybean harvest in the 2025/26 season in the state has reached 14%, 9 percentage points higher than a week ago but still lower than the levels of the past two years. DERAL raised the soybean production forecast for the 2025/26 season in Paraná state to 22.04 million tons, a 4% increase from last year [13]. 3.1.6 US Biofuel Policy - The US Treasury Department released the proposed detailed guidelines for the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit. This policy has received different responses in the industry. For the US ethanol and biodiesel industries, the release of the guidelines marks a transition from "vague expectation" to the "operational stage." However, there are still some unresolved technical problems, such as the unreleased revised 45Z GREET model, which will directly determine the monetary value of credit额度 [14][15]. 3.2 Price and Profit Data 3.2.1 Commodity Prices - The table shows the prices and price changes of various soybean - related products. For example, the price of imported second - grade soybeans in Dalian is 3,950 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day. The average price of soybeans is 4,072 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9,180 yuan/ton, with an average price of 9,206 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang is 9,940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton, and the average price is 10,046 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [16]. 3.2.2 Oil Mill Pressing Profits - The table shows the pressing profits of oil mills in different regions. For example, the pressing profit of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang is - 7.60 yuan, while the pressing profit of imported soybeans in Dalian is 16.10 yuan [17]. 3.3 Related Charts - The report mentions several related charts, including soybean port inventory, soybean盘面pressing profit, soybean oil port inventory, palm oil port inventory, soybean oil basis, and palm oil basis, but no specific chart data is provided [18][20][22][24][26][28]