甲醇日报：静待库存拐点-20260205

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report suggests paying attention to the low - buying opportunities after the methanol price drops, focusing on the recent macro factors and short - term sentiment changes, and waiting for the inventory inflection point [3] Summary by Directory Fundamental Analysis - As of February 4, 2026, the total inventory of methanol ports in China was 1.411 million tons, a decrease of 61,100 tons compared with the previous data. The inventory in East China decreased by 64,800 tons, while the inventory in South China increased by 3,700 tons. The methanol port inventory decreased this week, with 127,300 tons of visible foreign vessel unloading recorded during the period. The terminal rigid demand in the Yangtze River Delta region remained stable, the提货 of the mainstream social warehouses was average, and the inventory decreased due to the reduction of unloading. The inventory in South China ports increased. In Guangdong, there were a small number of imported and domestic vessels arriving during the week, the提货 volume of the mainstream warehouses was average, and the inventory fluctuated little. In Fujian, the imported cargo continued to be replenished. Although the提货 volume was stable under the rigid demand and pre - holiday stocking, it was still difficult to offset the increase in supply, resulting in inventory accumulation [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The ADP employment number in the US in January was lower than expected. The Ministry of Commerce and other nine units issued the "2026 'Happy Shopping for the Spring Festival' Special Activity Plan" [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The price fluctuated slightly during the day. The support level should be focused on the 60 - day moving average of the daily K - line. In the medium term, continue to pay attention to the realization of continuous inventory reduction. Appropriate attention can be paid to the low - buying opportunities after the price drops significantly. Emphasis should be placed on recent macro factors and short - term sentiment changes [3]