沪铜日报：波动率放大，谨慎操作-20260205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper market opened lower and moved lower, with an intraday decline of nearly 4%. The release dates of the US January non - farm payrolls report and CPI report have been postponed. China's non - ferrous metal industry plans to improve the copper resource reserve system and may have halted some copper smelting projects. In January, the output of electrolytic copper in China increased, but it is expected to decline in February. High copper prices in January suppressed demand, and the terminal new energy market performed poorly. The Chilean National Copper Commission has raised the 2026 copper price forecast. In the short term, the copper market is under pressure due to the approaching holiday demand vacuum and inventory accumulation, but it is expected to be strong in the long - term due to supply tightness [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened lower and moved lower, with an intraday decline of nearly 4%. The US has postponed the release of January non - farm payrolls and CPI reports. China plans to improve the copper resource reserve system and may have halted some smelting projects. The 1 - month SMM China electrolytic copper output was 117.93 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a year - on - year increase of 16.32%. It is expected to decrease by 3.04% month - on - month in February but increase by 8.06% year - on - year. High copper prices in January suppressed demand, and the new energy market was affected by purchase tax, while traditional and power industries showed resilience. The Chilean National Copper Commission raised the 2026 copper price forecast to $4.95 per pound. In the short term, the market is under pressure due to the holiday demand vacuum and inventory accumulation, but strong in the long - term due to supply tightness [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened lower and moved lower, with an intraday decline of nearly 4%. Spot: The spot premium in East China was - 75 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 130 yuan/ton. On February 4, 2026, the LME official price was $13328/ton, and the spot premium was - 81 dollars/ton [3] Supply Side - As of February 3, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 50.3 dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 5.22 cents/pound [8] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 16.07 million tons, an increase of 907 tons from the previous period. As of February 2, Shanghai bonded area copper inventory was 9.03 million tons, a decrease of 0.86 million tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 18.06 million tons, an increase of 1925 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 58.42 thousand short tons, an increase of 1892 short tons from the previous period [12]