热卷日报：震荡偏弱-20260205

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term cautious and bullish rating on hot - rolled coils [6] Core Viewpoints - The hot - rolled coil futures market is oscillating weakly, with supply relatively stable and demand showing strong resilience despite a decline due to the approaching Spring Festival. The total inventory is at a high level mainly because of high - level social inventory, and there is still inventory pressure. Attention should be paid to the resumption of manufacturing operations after the Spring Festival and the inventory depletion speed [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Futures Price: On Thursday, the open interest of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract increased by 11,934 lots, and the trading volume was 283,875 lots, a decrease compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3255 yuan, the high was 3278 yuan, and the market was oscillating weakly. In the short - term, it fell below the 5 - day, 30 - day, and 60 - day moving average lines, closing at 3263 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan or 0.40% [1] - Spot Price: The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream area, was reported at 3260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was - 3 yuan [3] 2. Fundamental Data - Supply: As of February 5, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils decreased by 0.05 million tons to 3.0916 million tons week - on - week and decreased by 11.03 million tons year - on - year. The current output is at a moderately high level in recent years, indicating that steel mills maintain a high production pace before the Spring Festival and production enthusiasm has increased [4] - Demand: As of February 5, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 5.87 million tons to 3.0554 million tons week - on - week and decreased by 8.11 million tons year - on - year. Affected by the Spring Festival shutdown, the demand of downstream manufacturing industries has declined, but it is still at a relatively high level in recent years and shows certain resilience [4] - Inventory: As of February 5, the total inventory increased by 3.62 million tons to 3.592 million tons week - on - week (social inventory increased by 2.12 million tons week - on - week, and steel mill inventory increased by 1.5 million tons). The pressure is concentrated in social inventory, and the steel mill inventory is controllable, indicating inventory backlog in the distribution link and insufficient willingness of downstream buyers to purchase [4] - Policy: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short - term export fluctuations, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The central economic meeting in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, which is beneficial to prices and industry profits, and efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4][5] 3. Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish Factors: Supply contraction, demand resilience, and policy support (the 14th Five - Year Plan, infrastructure investment) [6] - Bearish Factors: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6] 4. Short - term View Summary - The hot - rolled coil futures decreased in volume today. Short - term pressure is near the 30 - day moving average, and the lower support is the previous low. Adopt a cautious and bullish approach. Currently, the supply is relatively stable, and although the demand has declined mainly due to the approaching Spring Festival, it still shows strong resilience. The total inventory is at a high level mainly due to high social inventory pressure, and inventory pressure still exists. Attention should be paid to the resumption of manufacturing operations after the Spring Festival and the inventory depletion speed [6]