PP日报：震荡下行-20260205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The PP supply - demand pattern has limited improvement, with limited spot follow - up at the end of January. However, there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution, and the upstream petrochemical inventory is low. The basis has been repaired, and it is expected that PP will fluctuate within a range. Since there is new production capacity of plastics put into operation recently, and the start - up rate of plastics is higher than that of PP, and the concentrated demand for plastic film has not started yet, it is expected that the L - PP price difference will decline [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week of January 30, the downstream start - up rate of PP decreased by 0.79 percentage points to 52.08% week - on - week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. Among them, the start - up rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, remained flat at 42.04% week - on - week, but plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On February 5, there were few changes in the maintenance devices. The PP enterprise start - up rate remained at around 80%, at a neutral - low level. The production ratio of standard drawstring decreased to around 27.5%. At the end of January, petrochemical inventory was depleted quickly, and currently petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - On the cost side, the geopolitical situation in Iran has been volatile. The US has reduced tariffs imposed on India. Indian refineries may increase crude oil purchases from the Middle East and the Americas, leading to a rebound in crude oil prices. Recently, the number of maintenance devices has slightly decreased. The price of downstream BOPP film continued to rebound. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the start - up rate of downstream plastic weaving is stable, but its new orders are limited [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The PP2605 contract decreased in a volatile manner with a reduction in positions. The lowest price was 6658 yuan/ton, the highest price was 6788 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6676 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.48%. The open interest decreased by 23108 lots to 497935 lots [2] Spot - Most of the PP spot prices in various regions declined. The drawstring was quoted at 6340 - 6880 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking Supply - On February 5, there were few changes in the maintenance devices. The PP enterprise start - up rate remained at around 80%, at a neutral - low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring decreased to around 27.5% [4] Demand - As of the week of January 30, the downstream start - up rate of PP decreased by 0.79 percentage points to 52.08% week - on - week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. Among them, the start - up rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, remained flat at 42.04% week - on - week, but plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] Inventory - On Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 6.5 tons week - on - week to 42 tons, 10.5 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. At the end of January, petrochemical inventory was depleted quickly, and currently petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4] 3.4 Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil contract 04 rose above $68 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat week - on - week at $825 per ton [5]