铁矿日报：商品情绪走弱，期现价格承压-20260205

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market shows a weakening trend in the short - term after breaking key levels, but the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. The futures contracts present a back structure and positive basis with futures at a discount [1][5] - The overall policy environment in the domestic market in Q1 is warm, which is one of the core logics for being bullish on Q1 risk assets. Overseas, Kevin Warsh's nomination for the new Fed chair is expected to have limited impact on the market, and investors should also focus on the US - Iran situation and the US government shutdown [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - The main iron ore futures contract fluctuated weakly, closing at 768.5 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton or 1.66% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 332,000 lots, the open interest was 525,000 lots, and the funds on hold were 8.878 billion yuan. The short - term trend is weak after breaking key levels [1] - Spot prices of mainstream port varieties and swaps declined slightly. The PB powder at Qingdao Port dropped 9 yuan to 775 yuan, the Super Special powder dropped 9 yuan to 660 yuan, and the main swap was 100.75 (- 1.4) US dollars/ton [1] - The basis of the PB powder at Qingdao Port was 44.1 yuan/ton, showing a slight contraction. The iron ore 5 - 9 spread was 17.5 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 10 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts presented a back structure and positive basis, but were slightly weak in the short - term [1] Fundamental梳理 - Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, mainly due to the obvious recovery of Brazilian shipments. The arrivals continued to decline, and there were expected disruptions on the supply side due to weather. On the demand side, pig iron production decreased slightly, the steel mill profitability weakened, the rigid demand was stable, and steel mills' restocking accelerated as the Spring Festival approached. The support for prices may gradually weaken as restocking progresses [2] - Port inventory continued to accumulate, the berthing inventory decreased, steel mill inventory increased significantly, and the overall inventory pressure was still building up [2] Macro层面 - Domestically, the expectation of positive policies continues as the macro - mainline. There is a growing expectation that policies in Q1 will strengthen to achieve an economic "good start" in the first year of the "15th Five - Year Plan", with a warm overall policy environment [4] - Overseas, Kevin Warsh's nomination for the new Fed chair is expected to have limited market impact. His monetary policy stance is "supporting interest rate cuts but advocating balance - sheet reduction", and he is considered a hawkish figure. Investors should also pay attention to the high - uncertainty risks of the US - Iran situation and the US government shutdown [4] Viewpoint总结 - In terms of the iron ore fundamentals, the arrivals decreased, reducing the supply pressure. The rigid demand on the demand side was stable. Although the port inventory was still accumulating, it was gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. The fundamental contradictions were not prominent, but the futures were at a discount under the back structure and positive basis. The short - term trend was weak after breaking key levels [5]