纯碱日报：短期震荡-20260205

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the soda ash industry is "short - term shock" [1] Core View of the Report - The core contradiction of soda ash is the continuous inventory accumulation caused by strong supply and weak demand, and the industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern has not improved. In the short term, the price is supported by anti - involution sentiment, and the cost support is lifted due to the unstable macro - environment and rising energy prices. However, the increasing inventory pressure limits the price rebound space, so the short - term futures price may fluctuate. Near the Spring Festival, downstream demand may weaken further, and the price may experience a weak adjustment. Attention should be paid to changes in downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment [4] Summary According to the Directory Market行情Review - Futures Market: The main soda ash contract opened low and moved lower, weakening during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band tightened, indicating a short - term shock signal. The intraday pressure was near the upper track of the Bollinger Band, and the support was near the 60 - day moving average. The trading volume decreased by 475,000 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 36,791 lots. The intraday high was 1227, the low was 1201, and the closing price was 1209, down 10 yuan/ton or 0.82% from the previous settlement price [1] - Spot Market: The spot market showed a weak and stable shock. The enterprise's equipment was operating stably, and the supply remained at a high level. The downstream demand was mediocre, the purchasing enthusiasm was poor, and the procurement was mainly based on just - in - time needs [1] - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was 41 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of February 5, the domestic soda ash production was 774,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8,800 tons or 1.12%. Among them, the light soda ash production was 360,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,700 tons; the heavy soda ash production was 414,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,100 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 83.25%, compared with 84.19% last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94%. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 88.21%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.78%; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 77.23%, a month - on - month increase of 2.58%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 16 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons or more was 86.47%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.85% [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,581,100 tons, an increase of 20,700 tons or 1.33% compared with Monday. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 83,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,500 tons; the heavy soda ash inventory was 746,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,200 tons. Compared with last Thursday, it increased by 36,900 tons or 2.39%. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 83,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,900 tons; the heavy soda ash inventory was 746,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons. The inventory at the same time last year was 1,878,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 29,770 tons or 15.85% [2] - Demand: The soda ash enterprise's shipment volume was 737,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.98%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 95.23%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.82%. Downstream buyers mainly replenished their stocks at low prices for just - in - time needs, and the purchasing enthusiasm was poor [3] - Profit: According to Longzhong Information statistics, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production method was - 29 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda method was - 88.8 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.45 yuan/ton. During the week, the price of raw material rock salt was stable, the price of thermal coal fluctuated upward, and the cost increased slightly [3] Main Logic Summary - The core contradiction of soda ash is the continuous inventory accumulation caused by strong supply and weak demand, and the industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern has not improved. In the short term, the price is supported by anti - involution sentiment, and the cost support is lifted due to the unstable macro - environment and rising energy prices. However, the increasing inventory pressure limits the price rebound space, so the short - term futures price may fluctuate. Near the Spring Festival, downstream demand may weaken further, and the price may experience a weak adjustment. Attention should be paid to changes in downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment [4]