尿素日报：面对假期前吸单压力-20260205

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea futures opened lower and trended downwards on February 5, 2026, with the spot market making a tentative small increase but facing difficulties in price hikes due to holiday order - taking. If there is no positive news, the spot market may lower prices to attract orders. [1][2][3] - The daily output of urea is increasing, with the January 2026 output expected to be 6.28 million tons, higher than the same period in previous years. [1] - The downstream demand for urea is expected to peak during the farming season after the Spring Festival. Currently, the compound fertilizer production capacity utilization rate has a small - scale increase, but it is limited before the holiday. [1] - The inventory is decreasing mainly due to agricultural pick - up, and it is expected to continue to decline before the Spring Festival and increase during the holiday. [1] - The overall demand for urea is weak, and the spot price is expected to remain weakly stable. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - Futures Market: The urea main contract 2605 opened at 1784 yuan/ton, closed at 1778 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.39%. The trading volume decreased by 5461 lots to 222,810 lots. Among the top twenty positions, long positions increased by 1430 lots, and short positions decreased by 5434 lots. [2] - Spot Market: The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1700 - 1760 yuan/ton, with Henan factories at the lower end. [1][3] 3.2. Fundamental Tracking - Basis: Based on the Henan region, the basis of the May contract is - 18 yuan/ton, 9 yuan/ton stronger than the previous trading day. [7] - Supply: On February 5, 2026, the national daily output of urea was 210,000 tons, an increase of 0.1 million tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 85.26%. [10] - Inventory: As of February 6, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 918,500 tons, a decrease of 26,400 tons from the previous week, a 2.79% decrease. [12] - Pre - sale Orders: As of February 6, 2026, the pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 8.82 days, an increase of 2.23 days from the previous period, a 33.84% increase. [12] - Downstream Data: From January 30 to February 6, 2026, the compound fertilizer production capacity utilization rate was 41.79%, an increase of 0.45 percentage points from the previous week. The average weekly production capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 57.95%, a decrease of 8.5 percentage points from the previous week. [14]