家电行业2026年度信用风险展望（2026年1月）

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable outlook for the home appliance industry, with a focus on credit risk assessment for 2026 [7] Core Insights - The home appliance industry in China experienced a historical high in domestic sales in 2025, driven by government policies and consumer demand, although growth is expected to slow down due to high base effects and market saturation [10][20] - The export of home appliances faced challenges in 2025, with total export value and quantity declining compared to the previous year, influenced by high base effects and uncertain trade environments [10][22] - The industry is undergoing structural changes, with growth driven by smart, green, and high-end product upgrades, as well as deeper market penetration [10][11] Industry Overview - In 2025, China's GDP reached 140.19 trillion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, supported by domestic demand and government policies [11] - The retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment reached 1.16949 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.0% [20] - The home appliance market is characterized by a shift from policy-driven growth to market-driven dynamics, with a notable impact from the "old-for-new" subsidy policies [10][20] Policy and Regulatory Environment - The government continued to enhance the "old-for-new" subsidy policy in 2025, expanding the scope and funding to stimulate home appliance consumption [15][16] - The 2026 policy will maintain support for the "old-for-new" program, focusing on energy-efficient products and expanding the range of supported items [17] Industry Performance - The home appliance sector showed resilience in 2025, with sample companies reporting revenue growth of 7.35% and profit growth of 10.42% in the first three quarters [44] - The industry is experiencing a structural differentiation in performance, with leading brands benefiting from government policies and market dynamics [38] Competitive Landscape - The home appliance industry is highly competitive, with leading companies like Midea, Haier, and Gree dominating the market, accounting for a significant share of total revenue [38][41] - The market is increasingly concentrated, with the top ten companies accounting for approximately 82.38% of the industry's revenue [38] Financial Condition - The sample companies in the home appliance industry maintain a low leverage level, with a median debt-to-asset ratio of 43.29% as of September 2025 [49] - Profitability indicators show a decline in gross margin to 21.61% in the first three quarters of 2025, compared to 23.15% for the previous year [45]