原油日报：原油冲高回落-20260205

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. Although it is the off - season for crude oil demand, due to the impact of winter storms, EIA data shows that US crude oil inventories have decreased more than expected, and refined oil inventories have also decreased significantly. However, the global floating crude oil storage is high, and the crude oil market is still in a supply - surplus pattern. The latest January EIA monthly report has raised the surplus amplitude for 2026. Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil, but currently, Venezuela has little impact on the global crude oil supply - demand. Geopolitical risks in Iran are highly uncertain, and the US - Iran nuclear negotiation is scheduled to be held in Muscat. The US has reduced tariffs on Indian goods, and India may increase crude oil purchases from the Middle East and the Americas. The first - day negotiation between Russia, the US, and Ukraine has ended, and the restart of the Tengiz oil field is in progress but with limited capacity recovery. Due to the repeated geopolitical situation in Iran and the weakening of the current cold wave, crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the near future [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - OPEC+ eight member countries will suspend the increase in oil production in March. The winter storm has led to an unexpected reduction in US crude oil and refined oil inventories, but the global floating crude oil storage is high, and the supply - surplus pattern remains. Chevron is increasing Venezuelan crude oil transportation. Geopolitical risks in Iran are uncertain, with the US - Iran nuclear negotiation scheduled. The US has reduced tariffs on Indian goods, and India may adjust its crude oil procurement. The first - day negotiation between Russia, the US, and Ukraine has ended, and the Tengiz oil field is restarting with limited capacity recovery. Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract 2603 rose 1.13% to 463.5 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 457.5 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 475.0 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 6074 to 21605 lots [2]. 3. Fundamental Tracking - The EIA monthly report raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by 0.79 dollars/barrel to 52.21 dollars/barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand from the previous forecast of 105.2 million barrels/day to 104.8 million barrels/day, and raised the 2026 global oil production from the previous forecast of 107.4 million barrels/day to 107.7 million barrels/day. The IEA raised the 2026 global oil demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels/day to 930,000 barrels/day and raised the 2026 global oil production growth rate by 100,000 barrels/day to 2.5 million barrels/day. US EIA data on February 4 showed that for the week ending January 30, US crude oil inventories decreased by 3.455 million barrels (expected to increase by 489,000 barrels), gasoline inventories increased by 685,000 barrels (expected to increase by 1.389 million barrels), refined oil inventories decreased by 5.553 million barrels (expected to decrease by 2.255 million barrels), and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 743,000 barrels [3]. 4. Supply - side Situation - The OPEC latest monthly report showed that OPEC's crude oil production in November was adjusted down by 21,000 barrels/day to 28.459 million barrels/day, and its production in December 2025 increased by 105,000 barrels/day to 28.564 million barrels/day. Due to the winter storm, US crude oil production in the week of January 30 decreased by 484,000 barrels/day to 13.215 million barrels/day, the largest decline since January 19, 2024. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 20.802 million barrels/day, a 2.54% increase compared to the same period last year. Gasoline weekly production decreased by 6.90% to 8.153 million barrels/day, with a four - week average production of 8.262 million barrels/day, a 0.44% decrease compared to the same period last year. Diesel weekly production increased by 5.92% to 4.31 million barrels/day, with a four - week average production of 4 million barrels/day, a 2.35% increase compared to the same period last year. The increase in diesel and other oil products drove the weekly supply of US crude oil products to continue to increase by 3.28% [4].