低开后震荡运行：沥青日报-20260205

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term, and it is recommended to use reverse arbitrage as the main strategy. The supply is at a low level in the same period in recent years, the demand is limited in the short - term, the raw material situation is uncertain, and the base - spread is at a moderately low level [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1.行情分析 - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt operating rate dropped 1.3 percentage points to 25.5%, 2.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year. In February 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 1.936 million tons, a decrease of 64,000 tons (3.2%) month - on - month and 135,000 tons (6.5%) year - on - year. The national asphalt shipment decreased 5.80% to 214,500 tons. Shandong Shengxing Petrochemical plans to switch to producing residual oil this week, and the asphalt operating rate will remain low [1] - Demand side: The rigid demand in the north is basically stagnant but there is inventory - arbitrage demand, and southern projects are gradually coming to an end. The downstream operating rates of asphalt industries mostly declined last week, and road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 14% due to capital and weather constraints [1] - Raw materials: The flow of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic refineries is severely restricted. Although the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased, it is still expected to be significantly lower than before the US intervention. It is expected that domestic refineries will still have raw material inventory available before March [1] - Price and base - spread: The asphalt price in Shandong is stable, and the base - spread has been repaired but is at a moderately low level. Crude oil prices have rebounded, and the short - term asphalt is expected to fluctuate within a range [1] 2. 期现行情 - Futures: The asphalt futures contract 2603 fell 0.36% to 3,339 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,336 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,382 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 13,038 to 85,907 lots [2] - Base - spread: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3,250 yuan/ton, and the base - spread of the asphalt 03 contract rose to - 89 yuan/ton, at a moderately low level [3] 3. 基本面跟踪 - Supply: The asphalt operating rate dropped 1.3 percentage points to 25.5%, 2.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year. From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. In 2025, the fixed - asset investment in road transportation and infrastructure construction (ex - electricity) both showed negative year - on - year growth [4] - Inventory: As of the week of January 30, the asphalt refinery inventory rate remained flat at 13.6% compared with the week of January 23, near the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4]