玻璃日报：短期震荡偏强-20260205

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term outlook for the glass industry is oscillating with a slight upward bias [1] Core View - The core contradiction in the glass market lies in the game between the "expectation of supply contraction" (cold repair + policy) and "weak actual demand" (sluggish real estate + seasonal off - peak). High inventory is the biggest pressure on the market rebound. Although there are some factors supporting the market sentiment, the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially improved, and the short - term price rebound may be limited. It is advisable to adopt an oscillating with a slight upward bias approach in the short term. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - Futures Market: The glass futures main contract opened low and moved lower, weakening during the session. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands have an upward - opening triple track, indicating a short - term oscillating with a slight upward bias signal. Resistance is near the upper Bollinger Band, and support is near the 30 - day moving average. Trading volume decreased by 762,000 lots compared to yesterday, and open interest decreased by 78,483 lots. The intraday high was 1109, the low was 1078, and the closing price was 1088, down 15 yuan/ton or 1.36% from the previous settlement price [1] - Spot Market: In North China, the market is stable with acceptable overall shipments; in East China, the purchasing sentiment is weak, and manufacturers' quotes are temporarily stable; in Central China, middle - and downstream buyers are rational, and transactions are mediocre; in South China, most downstream enterprises are on holiday except for a few processing plants rushing orders, and the purchasing sentiment has declined [1] - Basis: The spot price in North China is 1020, and the basis is - 68 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of February 5th, the total weekly output of float glass was 1.0558 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.11% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.16%. The average operating rate was 71.86%, unchanged week - on - week; the average capacity utilization rate was 75.61%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.09%. Two production lines of Dongtai Zhongbo stopped production today, each with a designed capacity of 600 tons [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53.064 million weight boxes, with a week - on - week increase of 500,000 weight boxes or 0.95%, and a year - on - year decrease of 11.77%. The inventory days were 23.1 days, an increase of 0.3 days from the previous period [2] - Demand: The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 6.35 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 31.9% and a year - on - year increase of 323.3%. As the Spring Festival approaches, the market atmosphere has significantly weakened, and orders from deep - processing plants in all regions have declined [2] - Import and Export: In December 2025, domestic float glass exports were 87,000 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons or 2.59% from the previous month; net exports were 72,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.51%. The cumulative export volume from January to December was 1.0292 million tons, an increase of 497,700 tons or 93.63% compared to the same period last year [2] - Profit: The weekly average profit of natural - gas - fired float glass was - 155.12 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.57 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of coal - gas - fired float glass was - 68.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3.39 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of petroleum - coke - fired float glass was 1.07 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.85 yuan/ton [3] Main Logic Summary - The core contradiction in the glass market is the game between supply contraction expectations and weak actual demand. High inventory restricts the market rebound. Although there are some positive factors supporting the market sentiment, the supply - demand contradiction remains unsolved, and the short - term price rebound may be limited. It is recommended to take an oscillating with a slight upward bias approach. Future attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4]