油粕日报：美豆拉高，巴西大豆贴水下滑-20260205

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market's consistent expectation of a bumper harvest and ample supply in South America is being further strengthened, but due to uncertainties in post - holiday soybean auctions and arrivals, it is not advisable to be overly bearish. The futures market is expected to fluctuate widely [2]. - The introduction of the US 45Z clean fuel production tax credit mechanism is reshaping the policy environment and profit logic of soybean biodiesel. It is a "differentiated reshaping" rather than an overall benefit. The market is in a relatively strong oscillation pattern with limited downside and weak upward drive [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Soybean Meal - Trump posted on "Truth Social" that China will increase this year's soybean procurement to 20 million tons and has promised to purchase 25 million tons next year. As of the end of January, China has bought about 12 million tons of US soybeans, fulfilling the agreement made at the end of October last year [2]. - Affected by this news, US soybeans rose significantly to around 1100 cents, but the Brazilian soybean premium dropped by 15 - 25 cents, restricting the increase of imported soybeans [2]. - Institutions have significantly raised the production estimate for Brazil's 2025/26 season, and the harvest progress is better than last year. Although there are still some uncertainties in local weather, the market's consistent expectation of a bumper harvest and ample supply in South America is being further strengthened [2]. Edible Oils - The US Treasury Department released the proposed 45Z rules on Tuesday, with the official release date of the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit rules set for February 4. The rules implement changes in "A Grand and Beautiful Act", including extending the tax credit until 2029, canceling the special credit rate for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), canceling the indirect land - use change penalty, and restricting eligibility to raw materials sourced from the US, Canada, and New Mexico [2]. - The 45Z policy is reshaping the policy environment and profit logic of soybean biodiesel. Low - carbon, large - scale, and traceable soybean biodiesel still has development space, while the traditional high - CI model will face greater profit pressure [3]. - Although the US 45Z policy strongly supports US soybean oil, its restrictions on raw material imports make it difficult for the benefits to spread to the domestic market. The market is in a relatively strong oscillation pattern with limited downside and weak upward drive [3].