荣昌生物：盈利拐点出现时点明显前移，维持“买入”评级-20260206

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Rongchang Biologics (09995) with a target price of HKD 136 [1] Core Insights - The report is optimistic about the company's upcoming milestones, including the enrollment of MGIII for Taitasip and the initiation of SSIII, as well as the first overseas BLA submission for Vedisit and the data readout for 1LUCIII [1] - The inclusion of Taitasip's indications in the mainland's medical insurance is expected to drive significant sales growth, alongside the anticipated approvals for major indications like SS and IgAN [1] - Early-stage products (RC148, RC118, new ADCRC278) are progressing towards more indications, with data readouts likely to continue catalyzing the stock price [1] Financial Performance - Rongchang Biologics has issued a positive earnings forecast, expecting approximately RMB 3.25 billion in revenue for the previous year, representing a year-on-year growth of about 89% [1] - The net profit is projected to be around RMB 716 million, with a non-deductible net profit of approximately RMB 78.5 million, both showing a turnaround from losses year-on-year [1] - The performance significantly exceeded previous expectations from both the report and the market, with the timing of the profitability inflection point occurring earlier than previously anticipated [1] - Excluding contributions from external licensing and fair value gains, the report estimates that the company's core business achieved or approached breakeven in the fourth quarter, ahead of prior expectations [1] - With Taitasip and RC148 expanding internationally and more R&D costs being borne by overseas partners, there is optimism for further improvement in the company's profit margins this year [1]