恐慌情绪反复，基本金属震荡偏承压

Group 1: Report's Overall Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - Panic sentiment persists, and base metals are under pressure with a volatile trend. In the short term, the negative impact of the sharp drop in silver prices remains, but its marginal effect is weakening. It is advisable to wait and see or cautiously take short - term long positions in copper, aluminum, and tin with strict position control. In the long term, due to the expected weak US dollar and supply - side disturbances, copper, aluminum, tin and other varieties are expected to maintain a relatively strong volatile trend [1] Group 3: Summary by Variety Copper - View: The US dollar index continues to rise, putting short - term pressure on copper prices. In the long term, it is expected to be volatile and relatively strong. - Logic: Macroscopically, the rising US dollar index pressures copper prices. In terms of supply and demand, copper mine supply disturbances increase, TC of copper concentrate spot drops, and the long - term processing fee in 2026 is at a record low, strengthening the expectation of refined copper supply contraction. On the demand side, terminal demand is weak, and social inventory of refined copper is high [7] Alumina - View: The expectation of production cuts competes with the reality of oversupply, and the alumina price fluctuates. - Logic: Recently, macro sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. Fundamentally, the average spot price has dropped significantly, increasing the expectation of supply contraction as high - cost inland production faces losses. However, in reality, supply contraction is insufficient, and the weakening of raw material prices weakens the price support. The futures price also faces pressure, so it is expected to fluctuate widely [7] Aluminum - View: Inventory continues to accumulate, and aluminum prices decline. In the short and long term, it is expected to be volatile and relatively strong. - Logic: Macroscopically, short - term risk appetite decreases, but the long - term macro expectation remains positive. On the supply side, domestic production capacity is stable, and overseas production is restricted. On the demand side, the initial - stage operating rate drops, and high prices suppress demand. Inventory continues to accumulate. Overall, the positive macro expectation and the tight supply - demand expectation are expected to support the price [7][8][9] Aluminum Alloy - View: Cost support persists, and the price fluctuates downwards. In the short and long term, it is expected to be volatile and relatively strong. - Logic: On the cost side, the price of scrap aluminum remains high, and supply is tight. On the supply side, some manufacturers start the Spring Festival holiday early, and policies may restrict supply. On the demand side, the subsidy for car replacement decreases, and high prices suppress demand. Inventory accumulates. Overall, cost support and stable supply - demand are expected to keep the price relatively strong [11] Zinc - View: The sentiment in the non - ferrous metal market weakens, and zinc prices decline again. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and in the long term, there is room for a decline. - Logic: Macroscopically, the expectation changes due to Trump's nomination. On the supply side, zinc ore supply is tight in the short term, and refinery profits decline. On the demand side, domestic consumption enters the off - season, and demand is average. In the short term, zinc exports continue, and inventory accumulation pressure is small. In the long term, supply is expected to increase, and demand growth is limited [13] Lead - View: The weakening sentiment in the non - ferrous metal market competes with high cost support, and lead prices fluctuate. - Logic: On the spot side, the spot premium rises, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead decreases slightly. On the supply side, the production of recycled lead decreases due to environmental protection and profit factors. On the demand side, electric bicycle orders weaken, but automobile battery orders improve, and the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises is still at a relatively high level. Overall, the price is expected to fluctuate [18] Nickel - View: The expected policy competes with the weak reality, and nickel prices fluctuate. It is expected to be volatile and relatively strong. - Logic: On the supply side, the overall supply pressure remains high. On the demand side, it enters the traditional off - season, and the overall fundamentals are in surplus. Policy - wise, Indonesia's potential policy changes have adjusted the market's cost and balance expectations. Overall, the price is expected to be volatile and relatively strong, and the policy changes need to be continuously tracked [20] Stainless Steel - View: The price of nickel iron drops slightly, and the stainless - steel futures market fluctuates. It is expected to be volatile and relatively strong. - Logic: The cost side still has some support. The production in December decreased, and the planned production in January may increase slightly. Terminal demand is cautious, and inventory accumulates. Overall, the price is expected to be volatile and relatively strong, and the policy changes in Indonesia need to be continuously tracked [21] Tin - View: Market sentiment is weak, and tin prices continue to adjust. In the long term, it is expected to be volatile and relatively strong, but short - term price volatility risks need to be vigilant. - Logic: Supply is the key factor affecting the price. The supply problem in some areas may be alleviated, while in others, it is still restricted. In the future, supply will be tight, and demand will continue to grow. However, in the short term, the strong US dollar, stable supply, and weakening bullish power may cause price fluctuations [23] Group 4: Market Monitoring Commodity Index - On February 5, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2401.01, down 0.84%; the commodity 20 index was 2745.41, down 0.99%; the industrial product index was 2300.28, down 0.97% [149] Non - ferrous Metal Index - On February 5, 2026, the index was 2696.94, with a daily decline of 1.55%, a 5 - day decline of 5.55%, a 1 - month decline of 2.75%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.41% [151]