现实压?仍存，盘?弱势调整

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials sector is "Oscillation" [7] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector during the off - season is becoming more obvious, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures market is under pressure. The resumption of production in steel mills is slow, the high shipment and high inventory of iron ore are putting pressure on the market, and the futures market is weak. As winter storage is coming to an end, the support for coal and coke replenishment is gradually weakening, and the import of Mongolian coal is at a high level, causing the futures market to fall from its high. The oversupply of glass and soda ash suppresses the futures prices. The sector is expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, and attention should be paid to macro - policy disturbances [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Element - Iron ore: The inventory pressure of iron ore continues to increase, there are still expectations of weather disturbances on the supply side, and the post - holiday demand is expected to be average. The futures market is under pressure, but there are still macro - expectations due to the upcoming Two Sessions after the holiday. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. For example, the port trading volume of iron ore is 98.6(-4.8) million tons, and the price of 61.5% PB powder in Qingdao Port is 772(-2) yuan/ton [2][8][9] - Scrap steel: The supply and daily consumption of scrap steel are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment is approaching the end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products. The average price of crushed materials in East China is 2108 (0) yuan/ton, and the price difference between rebar and scrap steel in East China is 1079 (-10) yuan/ton [2][10] Carbon Element - Coke: The subsequent growth space of coke supply is limited, while the expectation of downstream steel mill复产 still exists. The coke supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot price is expected to remain stable, and the futures market is expected to follow the cost - side coking coal. The quasi - first - grade coke price in Rizhao Port is 1480 (0) yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract in the port is -18 (+32) yuan/ton [2][10][13] - Coking coal: As the Spring Festival approaches, the production of domestic coal mines will gradually decline. The fundamentals of coking coal will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot price may oscillate, and the futures market is expected to oscillate widely due to the influence of capital sentiment. The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu is 1280 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian 5 coking coal in Wubulangkou Jinquan Industrial Park is 1230 (0) yuan/ton [2][14] Alloys - Manganese silicon: The market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream has great pressure to destock. The futures price of the main contract of manganese silicon is expected to oscillate around the cost. The ex - factory price of 6517 manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia is 5650 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of Australian ore with 45.0% Mn in Tianjin Port is 41.5 (0) yuan/ton degree [3][17] - Ferrosilicon: The supply and demand of ferrosilicon are both weak, and the fundamental contradictions are limited. Before the festival, the market trading activity is low, and the upward driving force of the futures market is insufficient. The futures price of ferrosilicon is expected to oscillate around the cost. The ex - factory price of 72 ferrosilicon in Ningxia is 5300 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of 99.9% magnesium ingot in Fugu is 16450 (0) yuan/ton [3][18] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. The current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price. The mainstream large - plate price in North China is 1020 yuan/ton (0 yuan/ton), and the national average price is 1106 yuan/ton (0 yuan/ton) [3][15] - Soda ash: The overall supply and demand are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted. The delivered price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1149 yuan/ton (-20 yuan/ton) [3][15][16]