Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Views - Sugar: After the bullish factors of increased production are largely realized in February when the Northern Hemisphere starts to end the sugar - crushing season, international sugar prices may rebound. Currently, the domestic import sugar supply is gradually decreasing, and the short - term downward space of sugar prices is limited. It is advisable to wait and see for now [3][4]. - Cotton: In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton fluctuates widely at a high level due to the significant fluctuations in the commodity market. In the medium - to - long - term, with the reduction of the new - year planting area and the positive macro - economic expectations, cotton prices still have room to rise. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of low - buying before the Spring Festival [6][9]. - Protein Meal: The expectation of China's increased purchase of US soybeans drives up the price of US soybeans. For the domestic market, on one hand, the long - term supply pressure increases, and on the other hand, the import cost rises. It is expected that the price of protein meal will continue to fluctuate in the short term [12][13]. - Oils and Fats: Driven by the bio - diesel policies of various countries, the consumption growth of oils and fats this year is greater than the production growth rate, and the medium - term price of oils and fats is bullish. In the short term, due to the significant fluctuations in the commodity market, the price of oils and fats fluctuates at a high level. It is recommended to wait for the price to pull back and then go long [15][17]. - Eggs: The spot price is about to realize the seasonal increase, which will drive the futures price down. The near - term contracts may show weak fluctuations due to valuation support, while the long - term contracts have positive expectations, but the path to achieve profitability is uncertain. It is advisable to maintain a short - selling strategy [19][20]. - Pigs: The large basic supply and the accumulation of live - pig inventories make the spot and near - term expectations pessimistic. The near - term contracts may still be under pressure, and it is advisable to short on rebounds. The long - term contracts may have support after following the downward trend, considering the high fat - to - standard price difference, seasonal support, and the expected recovery of consumption demand [22][23]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar - Market Quotes: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract was 5224 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 0.27% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5270 - 5370 yuan/ton, up 0 - 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - Supply and Demand Data: As of the week of February 4, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased to 49 from 54 in the previous week, and the sugar quantity decreased to 1.5644 million tons from 1.7826 million tons. StoneX expects a global sugar surplus of 2.9 million tons in the 2025/26 crushing season. India's sugar production as of January 31, 2026, reached 19.305 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.8%. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons. In 2025, China's total sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 570,000 tons. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 310,000 tons. In December, China produced 2.63 million tons of sugar, and the cumulative production in the 2025/26 crushing season was 3.68 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 720,000 tons. The cumulative sales volume was 1.57 million tons, and the cumulative sales - to - production ratio was 31.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 25.56 percentage points. The industrial inventory was 2.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons [3]. Cotton - Market Quotes: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract was 14,610 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton or 0.48% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 16,012 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [6]. - Supply and Demand Data: As of the week of January 30, the spinning mill operating rate was 64.2%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.65 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous week. From January 15 to January 22, the US current - year cotton export sales were 51,800 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.7722 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 194,900 tons. The export to China in that week was 8800 tons, and the cumulative export to China was 97,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 66,000 tons. The USDA's January forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points from the December forecast and an increase of 0.62 percentage points from the previous year. The US production forecast was 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons from the December forecast. The export forecast remained unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, a decrease of 2.17 percentage points. Brazil's production forecast remained at 4.08 million tons, India's production was revised down by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons, and China's production was revised up by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. In 2025, China's total cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.56 million tons [6][8]. Protein Meal - Market Quotes: On Thursday, the protein meal futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May soybean meal contract was 2731 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton or 0.29% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May rapeseed meal contract was 2238 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton or 0.4% from the previous trading day. The spot price of soybean meal in Dongguan was 3080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of rapeseed meal in Huangpu was 2460 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. - Supply and Demand Data: Trump said that China agreed to increase the purchase of US soybeans from 12 million tons to 20 million tons this season. StoneX's latest forecast for Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season is a record - high 181 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons from the January forecast and a year - on - year increase of 13 million tons. As of January 31, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 99.6%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year and a 0.3 - percentage - point increase from the five - year average. The soybean harvesting rate was 11.4%, a 3.4 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year and a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the five - year average. From January 23 to January 30, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 1.82 million tons, an increase of 350,000 tons from the previous week. The sample soybean port inventory was 6.71 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons from the previous week. The sample oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 860,000 tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from the previous week [12]. Oils and Fats - Market Quotes: On Thursday, the oils and fats futures price declined. The closing price of the May soybean oil contract was 8104 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton or 0.44% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May palm oil contract was 9042 yuan/ton, down 96 yuan/ton or 1.05% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May rapeseed oil contract was 9144 yuan/ton, down 99 yuan/ton or 1.07% from the previous trading day. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8670 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9180 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9940 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [15]. - Supply and Demand Data: The market's forward - looking forecast for Malaysia's palm oil production in January 2026 was 1.62 million tons, a decrease of 210,000 tons from the previous month. The export was 1.42 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from the previous month, and the inventory was 2.89 million tons, a decrease of 160,000 tons from the previous month. The US Treasury Department issued the latest guidance on bio - fuel tax credits, and the public hearing is scheduled for May. The data released by shipping survey agencies ITS and AmSpec showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports in January increased by 14.9% and 17.9% respectively month - on - month. From January 23 to January 30, the domestic sample inventory of the three major oils and fats decreased slightly by 60,000 tons to 1.89 million tons [15][16]. Eggs - Market Quotes: Most egg prices across the country declined yesterday, with a few remaining stable. The average price in the main producing areas dropped 0.09 yuan to 3.47 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan dropped 0.2 yuan to 3.1 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao dropped 0.18 yuan to 2.82 yuan/jin. The supply was normal, the market digestion was slow, and the traders' cautious sentiment increased. It is expected that most egg prices across the country may decline in the short term, while a few areas may see stable prices [19]. Pigs - Market Quotes: Domestic pig prices mainly declined yesterday, with some areas showing small increases. The average price in Henan increased 0.14 yuan to 12.36 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan decreased 0.23 yuan to 11.54 yuan/kg. The northern pig - farmers still had the sentiment of reducing sales and hoarding, which may support the pig prices to be relatively strong. The supply in the southern market did not change much, and the demand was also average, so there was no condition for price increase for now, and the prices may remain stable [22].
2026-02-06：五矿期货农产品早报-20260206
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-02-06 01:32