金信期货日刊-20260206

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The coking coal market is likely to maintain a wide - range oscillation. After the Spring Festival, there may be a phased rebound, but the overall upward space is limited. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy within the range [3][4] - For other commodities: A shares adjusted downward with low trading volume, and the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to recover tomorrow; gold is expected to continue fluctuating, so participation should be cautious; iron ore is seeking a bottom with weak domestic demand support and a bearish outlook; glass has a bullish tendency with minor daily adjustments; methanol may fluctuate slightly and is expected to stabilize as demand recovers; pulp is in a range - bound trend due to slow domestic consumption recovery [7][10][11][14][17][21] Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - External Events: Indonesian miners have suspended spot coal exports due to a government production - cut plan, with some 2026 output quotas potentially cut by 40% - 70% compared to 2025. This has led to a rise in export quotes, a limit - up in the A - share coal sector, and a stronger coking coal futures market [3] - Domestic Situation: As the Spring Festival approaches, domestic coal mines are on holiday, reducing supply. However, Mongolian coal imports at the Ganqimaodu Port remain high. In February, coking coal supply decreases while demand remains stable, with fundamental improvements [3] - Technical Analysis: Coking coal futures are oscillating between 1100 - 1300 yuan/ton, with 1300 yuan being a strong resistance level. Trading volume did not increase during recent rallies, and market activity is low due to the approaching Spring Festival [3] A Shares - The overall A - share market adjusted downward with low trading volume today. Technically, the short - term adjustment of the Shanghai Composite Index is nearing the end, and it is expected to recover tomorrow [7] Gold - Gold prices have continued to decline significantly, and fluctuations are expected to continue for some time. Caution is advised when participating [10] Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of a supply surplus has intensified. On the demand side, except for exports, the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still weak. Technically, it has broken through the support platform, and the outlook is bearish [11][12] Glass - Daily melting volume has changed little, and inventory has slightly decreased. The main drivers are policy - side stimulus and supply - side optimization. Technically, it adjusted today, but the bullish view remains [14][15] Methanol - Methanol at ports may fluctuate slightly due to expected import reduction. Attention should be paid to downstream resumption progress, port inventory changes, and coal price trends. Prices are expected to stabilize as demand recovers [17] Pulp - Since the end of last year, the supply - demand pattern of pulp has improved, driving prices to bottom out. However, the slow recovery of domestic terminal consumption restricts price increases, and the futures market is in a range - bound trend [21]